WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Pick for Royals vs. Reds
Kick off the week the right way with WeBeatTheSpread's pick for today's MLB slate. Don't miss out on this Royals vs. Reds pick for Monday. Tail this premium pick.
Ben Rajavuori - June 12, 2023, 5:11 PM EDT
5 minWeBeatTheSpread's Premium Pick for Royals vs. Reds
The Kansas City Royals and Cincinnati Reds kick off a three-game series from Kauffman Stadium tonight in Kansas City. The Reds enter this series off a series win against the Cardinals, with rookie standout Elly De La Cruz already making a huge impact on the team. The Royals, meanwhile, have been just about as bad as the Athletics at 18-47 and have lost five in a row. Tonight, they are very slight favorites at home in the opener.
As scary as backing the Royals may be, I like them to take the opener tonight. Zack Greinke may look like he is on the edge of retirement, but he is still a great pitcher when he is pitching at home. Greinke is 0-4 on the road with a 6.15 ERA, but he is much better at home with a 1-2 record and a 3.00 ERA.
His only bad start at home this season has been against the Braves, which is understandable, but he has been pitching well at home this season and just about every season in his career. He has always been worse on the road.
On the other side, Luke Weaver will be starting for the Reds, and he has been bad both on the road and at home. He hasn't been able to nail down his stuff this season and has been struggling in the majors for years now. He has a 4.93 career ERA and actually pitched for the Royals last year, sporting a 5.59 ERA from the bullpen.
Weaver is one of the weakest pieces of a surprisingly good Reds rotation, and the Reds have lost five of his nine starts this season, and three of the wins behind his starts came in very high-scoring games where he got tremendous run support. Weaver has only recorded one quality start in nine starts this season, which was at home.
The Royals have been abysmal, but they have played some pretty good games behind Zack Greinke. He loves pitching at home, and the Royals have to win again at some point. The line is very telling here, as the Royals are actually slight favorites against a Reds team picking up momentum.
Their lineup looks scary right now, but they have never faced Greinke, and he throws some tricky stuff that can be difficult to hit if you haven't seen it before. I like the Royals to take the opener, as they will probably lose the next two games with better Reds pitchers on the mound. This game is their best chance in the series.
Pick: Royals ML (-115) Bet $100 to collect $186 PointsBet has the best odds
