MLB Picks Today: Can You Trust Nick Castellanos, Freddie Freeman?
Oddschecker handicapper Stuart Durst is here to provide his best MLB pick for today. He's eyeing two games on the slate. Don't miss out on this hit parlay.
Stuart Durst - June 13, 2023, 9:50 AM EDT
5 minMLB Picks Today: Can You Trust Nick Castellanos, Freddie Freeman?
Today’s slate has plenty of firepower, and we’re targeting two high-powered hitters. While there may be a lot of good pitchers on the mount today, we found a couple of advantage matchups to take advantage of. Check out my favorite hit parlay for today's MLB slate.
MLB Picks Today
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Nick Castellanos is 4-12 versus Zach Davies with two XBH and a .373 xBA in their career matchups. The Phillies lineup has been pretty inconsistent over the course of the season, but Castellanos has been one of the sole guys getting it done on a week-to-week basis. He’s hitting .312 on the season, which is sixth in the MLB. Additionally, he’s playing very well in June, batting .436 so far this month.
Castellanos will be facing Zach Davies, who’s allowed 5+ hits in four straight outings. Davies is primarily throwing sinker, changeup, and cutter to opposing right-handed batters. Castellanos fairs well against those pitches, hitting .376, .233, and .333 this year. He’s not the greatest against the changeup, but even dating back to last year, he had over a .300 xBA against the sinker and cutter combo.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction
We are also betting on Freddie Freeman, who has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball over the last couple of years. Freeman is hitting .338 on the season, which is second in the MLB, and hitting .343 against right-handed pitching. He’s matching up against Lance Lynn, who has struggled this season with a 6.72 ERA.
While Lynn generally isn't having a good time this season, he is especially struggling against left-handed batting. He’s allowing an insane .362 OBA against left-handed hitters, who are slugging .702 against him. Freeman is the best lefty on this team, and I trust him to take care of business against Lynn, who allowed 16 hits over his last two outings. It's one of those situations where we have a very capable hitter going up against a struggling starting pitcher; let's take advantage.
Lynn’s top three pitches against opposing left-handed hitters are a 4-seam fastball, cutter, and changeup, which have OBAs of .300/.264/.538 this season. Freeman has excellent splits against those pitches, hitting .400/.320/.387 this year. The 33-year-old is probably one of the three worst batters for a pitcher struggling against lefties. I don't mind laddering the total bases up to four as well. He’s a 100th-percentile xBA player, and I trust him to get the job done in a good matchup.
MLB Picks Today
Nick Castellanos/Freddie Freeman 1+ Hit -119 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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