Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Can Framber Valdez Rack Up the Strikeouts?
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Can Framber Valdez Rack Up the Strikeouts?
The Houston Astros took care of business in Game 1 last night, taking the first game of the series by a score of 6-1. Tonight, the Astros have the always-game Framber Valdez on the mound to try and lock up Gmae 2 of the series. What is the best play on Valdez in this game?
Astros vs. Nationals Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, June 14, 2023
- Start Time: 8:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals Prediction
Despite the Washington Nationals' struggles this season, there are bright spots. Yes, they are 26-39 right now and last in their division, but that's mostly due to pitching. The Nationals are 25th in team ERA and 26th in the MLB, with 5.11 runs allowed per nine innings. Offensively, they have been one of the better teams in the MLB, at least when they don't have runners in scoring position. They are sixth overall with a .261 team batting average and second in the MLB in strikeouts per game. They have struggled with runners in scoring position, which has led to them being 22nd in runs scored per nine.
The Nationals do not strike out much in 2023. Worse for Valdez, the Nationals REALLY don't strike out much against left-handed pitchers. In fact, the Nationals are dead last in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching in 2023. They only strike out in 16.8% of at-bats against lefties this season, which is nearly a whole percentage lower than the second-place Blue Jays. The Nationals rank second in the MLB in contact percentage and second in swinging strikes percentage, both stats just below the Diamondbacks. The Nationals are a tough team to put down on strikes this season and even tougher for left-handed pitchers.
Framber Valdez is having an excellent 2023. He has a 2.36 ERA in 13 starts so far this season, but he has never been a big swing-and-miss guy. His K/inning in 2023 sits at 1.06, which is in the 60th percentile in the MLB. His swinging strike percentage is just 10.5%, which is in the 41st percentile, and I just mentioned how good the Nationals are in that metric.
Thus, tonight should be a lot of outs on balls in play for Framber. Framber is an excellent ground ball-forcing pitcher, and he has a stellar infield to rely on to record those outs. Tonight shouldn't be much different, as the Nationals have been the stingiest team to send down strikes against lefties. The Toronto Blue Jays are second-lowest in strikeout rate against lefty pitchers, and Framber just put up five strikeouts on them his last time out. All we need is five or fewer tonight and at a great plus-money price.
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals Pick
Pick: Framber Valdez Under 5.5 Ks +125 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.