WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Padres vs. Guardians Picks
The San Diego Padres host the Cleveland Guardians tonight for the second game of their series. WeBeatTheSpread shares his best pick for the game. Tail this premium MLB pick.
Ben Rajavuori - June 14, 2023, 5:20 PM EDT
5 minWeBeatTheSpread's Premium Padres vs. Guardians Picks
The San Diego Padres host the Cleveland Guardians in Petco Park tonight for Game 2 of a three-game set. Thanks to a big four-run first inning, the Padres took Game 1, eventually closing the game 6-3. Tonight, I expect a lot fewer runners crossing home plate.
I love the fact that last night's game went over the total because that only makes me love the under that much more. The Padres and Guardians have been the two best under teams in baseball, and it's not really even close. The Padres are first in the MLB to the under at 22-42-2, and the Guardians are not far behind in second with a 24-39-3 record to the under. Third is the Colorado Rockies at 29-40 to the under. Last night's game DID go over, but it's important to note that there was a four-run first inning and then only five runs in the rest of the game. Tonight, there are two consistent pitchers on the mound.
Michael Wacha takes the mound for the Padres, and he has really improved after a rough start to the season. Wacha had a 6.75 ERA across five starts in April but has since lowered his 2023 ERA all the way to 3.18. He has gone seven-straight starts with two earned runs or less, and he has a 1.1 ERA since the start of May. Wacha has been a good underbet, as he is 4-8 to the over and 1-7 to the over in his last eight starts.
On the other side will be Aaron Civale on the bump for the Guardians. Civale has not had many starts so far this season due to injury, but he has looked good since his return. He had two starts in April before getting injured and now has two starts since returning, in which he has given up a combined two earned runs in 10.2 innings. He has a 2.31 ERA in 2023 and is 1-2-1 to the over in his limited action.
Behind these two starters are two excellent bullpens. The Guardians rank second-lowest in the MLB with a 2.96 bullpen ERA, and the Padres are not far behind at fifth place with a 3.33 bullpen ERA. Both the Guardians and Padres also sport two of the best closers in the game, Emmanuel Clase for the Guards and Josh Hader for the Padres. Once Wacha and Civale leave the game, this game should not see many more runs, if any.
This is a great spot to back an under right after an overhit in game one. Both the Guardians and Padres have struggled at the plate and are both bottom 10 in runs scored per game. We have two solid pitchers on the mound backed up by two of the best bullpens in baseball. These are the two most profitable underbets in baseball in 2023, and I will back this one to stay under 8.5 tonight.
Pick: Guardians/Padres Under 8.5 -110 Bet $100 to collect $190 BetMGM has the best odds
