Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction: Can the Braves Rock Ranger Suarez?
The Atlanta Braves are in Philadelphia, taking on the Phillies tonight. Can the Braves rock Ranger Suarez? Handicapper Ben Rajavuori answers.
Ben Rajavuori - June 20, 2023, 4:27 PM EDT
5 minPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction: Can the Braves Rock Ranger Suarez?
The Atlanta Braves got done sweeping the Colorado Rockies at home and now hit the road to take on the Phillies in Philadelphia. The Braves have now won six in a row and have a commanding lead in the NL East, and they are 2.5 games ahead in the National League as a whole. The Phillies have been equally hot, winning their last six games in a row as well. The Phillies have climbed back above .500 but are still in third place in the division. This will be a big game against division rivals, and the Phillies send out Ranger Suarez to battle in the opener.
Phillies vs. Braves Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: June 20, 2023
- Time: 6:40 pm ET
- Where to Watch: TBS
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction
Ranger Suarez had a rough start to the 2023 season, posting a 7.13 ERA in May across his first four starts. He has a combined .90 ERA in his last three starts, although he has been pitching against teams that are not great against lefty pitchers the last few starts. Tonight will not be the case at all.
The Braves rank first in the MLB with a .301 batting average versus left-handed pitchers, and they are also in first with a .904 OPS, with second only coming in at a .841 OPS. The Braves have dominated lefties this season so far. Along with leading these categories against Southpaws, the Braves go hand-in-hand with their strikeout rate. The Braves have a talented lineup that could easily contend for the World Series again this year, and with their talented hitters come patience at the plate and a low strikeout rate.
The Braves only have a 21% strikeout rate against lefty pitchers, averaging out to about one strikeout every five plate appearances, ranking them 11th in the league. However, while 11th doesn't sound very good, they have only gotten better in the last few weeks. Over the last two weeks, the Braves have just a 12% strikeout rate against lefty pitching, ranking 2nd in the league.
Ranger Suarez is a decent pitcher, but he's never been a dominant strikeout pitcher. He had a much higher strikeout rate when he pitched out of the bullpen earlier in his career, but since becoming a predominant starter in the rotation the last few seasons, his strikeout stuff has dropped a bit. This season, Suarez has .94 strikeouts per inning, which ranks in the 38th percentile among starting pitchers. He only gets swinging strikes on 9.7% of pitches, which ranks in the 30th percentile.
Ranger Suarez has a strikeout line of 4.5 tonight, which is a line he has hit in three of his seven outings this season or 43% so far. The Braves have been dominant against lefties so far, and starting lefties have not fared well against them. The Brave's last lefty they saw was Kyle Freeland of the Rockies, who ended with one strikeout with a line of 3.5. Before that, they faced MacKenzie Gore of the Washington Nationals, who finished with three strikeouts with a line of 5.5. Before that, they faced JP Sears of the Oakland Athletics, who finished with two strikeouts with a line of 5.5. Before that, they faced Cody Bradford of the Texas Rangers, who finished with three strikeouts with a line of 4.5—seeing a pattern yet? The Braves have been nearly impossible to put down on strikes for lefties. That will continue tonight. I'm on the under for Ranger Suarez.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Pick
Pick: Ranger Suarez Under 4.5 Ks -102 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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