WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Angels vs. Dodgers Pick

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Angels vs. Dodgers Pick

The Freeway Series is back in 2023 with a matchup between the real Los Angeles team (the Dodgers) and the fake Los Angeles team (the Angels). The Angels will be the home team as the Dodgers travel to Anaheim for this series. The longtime ace Clayton Kershaw will get the start for the Dodgers, while the struggling young gun Reid Detmers will get the start for the Angels. Given the Dodger's struggles lately, they are only -125 to win tonight. Is that the correct line?

The Dodgers are just 5-10 in June and sit in third in the NL West, which is a surprise, to say the least, with all the talent on the team. Still, they have a good chance to get back on track with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. The Dodgers are 9-5 when Kershaw starts this season, and they do not often lose back-to-back starts under Kershaw, and they lost his last start.

Kershaw had an inflated 5.55 ERA in May but locked back in for June, posting a 1.8 ERA over his last three starts. He now has a 2.95 ERA on the season. Kershaw now has a 2.49 career ERA and has been an ace for 16 seasons with the Dodgers. Although the Dodgers and Angels play in different leagues, Kershaw has seen the Angels at least once every season for the Freeway Series and has been utterly dominant against the Halos. He has won ten straight games against the Angels and given up just ten COMBINED earned runs in those ten starts, good for a 1.3 ERA against the Angels.

It's not that Kershaw has gotten lucky and not faced good Angel lineups, either. He has dominant numbers against the best hitters on the team. Shohei Ohtani is 0-8 off Kershaw. Mike Trout is 4-20 with a .200 BA. Taylor Ward is 0-7. Hunter Renfroe is 3-25 with a .120 BA. Brandon Drury is 3-22 with a .136 BA. The expected lineup tonight (the lineup isn't out yet) is a combined 11-94 off Kershaw's lifetime, good for a .117 batting average. Kershaw owns them like Aaron Rodgers owns the Chicago Bears.

The reason the Dodgers are not favored more in this game is that the Dodgers have sucked against left-handed pitching this season, but they have a chance to correct that against Reid Detmers tonight. Detmers is coming off decent back-to-back starts, but he still has a 4.48 ERA on the season and has pitched even worse at home with a 4.65 ERA. Unlike Kershaw, Detmers has not had success against the opponent, either. Detmers has two career starts against the Dodgers, and he gave up four runs in 3.2 innings in the last meeting and five runs in five innings in the first meeting. He has been hit hard the only two times he has faced the Dodgers, and the Angels lost both those games.

The Dodgers have not looked like their dominant selves so far in 2023, but this is a great opportunity for them to notch a win in the series opener. Kershaw has dominated the Angels like no other, and even the best hitters in the Angels lineup are batting under .220 or are hitless against him. The Dodgers can get back on track against lefties tonight against a pitcher they have had success against, and the bullpen should do better than they did in the San Francisco Giants series. This is a Dodgers win all the way tonight, and it comes with a great price.

Pick: Dodgers ML -124 (Bet $100 to collect $180) DraftKings has the best odds