Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Can Braxton Garrett Rack Up the Strikeouts?
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Can Braxton Garrett Rack Up the Strikeouts?
Braxton Garrett pitches in the series opener for the Miami Marlins tonight and will be tasked with shutting down the Pittsburgh Pirates. Garrett enters tonight's game with a 3.88 ERA and a 3-2 record. He is coming off back-to-back good outings, as he has given up one run in his last two outings combined over 11.1 innings. The Marlins have won his last four starts, and he will look to continue that success into tonight. While he could have another good outing, I don't think he will rack up strikeouts as easily as he has been so far this season.
Marlins vs. Pirates Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: June 22, 2023
- Time: 6:40 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Braxton Garrett has 1.11 strikeouts per inning in 2023, which ranks in the 68th percentile in the MLB. He has good strikeout stuff, ranking in the 79th percentile with a 13.3% swinging strike rate, but he can run up his pitch count quickly and does not go deep into games. Garrett has yet to break 90 pitches all season, and he has pitched six full innings just twice in 14 outings this year.
So while he has had a lot of strikeouts in recent outings, I don't know how long he will be able to maintain those numbers, and I think he is due for some regressions. Garrett has 6+ strikeouts in seven of his last eight outings, but he had 6+ strikeouts in just one of his first six outings in the season. The Pirates are a good candidate to regress against at the moment, strikeout-wise, at least.
The Pirates may look awful in the win-loss column lately, but they have been tough to strike out at the plate, especially against Southpaws. The Pirates rank fifth-lowest in strikeout rate against lefties in 2023 at 20.3%. That percentage has been even lower as the season has progressed, as the Pirates have struck out in just 17% of plate appearances against lefties in June.
Part of this is because the Pirates have a lineup full of right-handed batters who tend to strike out less than lefty-on-lefty matchups. The Pirates have a few switch-hitters, but there is currently only one true lefty in the lineup, which can be a strikeout desert for Southpaw pitchers.
The strikeout line is 5.5 for Braxton Garrett tonight. Left-handed starters have hit over 5.5 strikeouts in just two of the last 15 games against the Pirates. Garrett has a 33.8% strikeout rate against lefty hitters this season but just 26.4% against righty hitters.
While the Pirates have been losing a lot, they have not been striking out against lefties a lot. I'm on Garrett to go under 5.5 strikeouts tonight, as even one per inning would keep us under this number since he rarely goes six innings.
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
Pick: Braxton Garrett Under 5.5 Strikeouts -102 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.