WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
The Pittsburgh Pirates face off against the Miami Marlins tonight. WeBeatTheSpread shares his best bet for the game. Tail this premium MLB bet.
Ben Rajavuori - June 22, 2023, 4:32 PM EDT
5 minWeBeatTheSpread's Premium Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road in Miami for a four-game series against the Marlins that will extend through the weekend. After a hot start to the season and taking first place in the NL Central, the Pirates have absolutely collapsed over the past month, now sitting in fourth place at 34-39. The good news is that it is still early in the season, and they are only five games behind the Cincinnati Reds, who sit in first place with a record of 40-35.
The Marlins, on the other hand, sit in second place in the NL East, six games behind the juggernaut Atlanta Braves, and if the season ended today, the Marlins would be the second wild card team. In this series, and tonight specifically, there is one player I love to have a good night in this pitching matchup.
Connor Joe was picked up by the Pirates this season after two seasons with the Colorado Rockies. Joe is having a pretty good season, sporting a .248 batting average and .787 OPS. His strikeout rate is up in 2023 from last season, but so are his extra-base hits. He is trading off a few more swings and misses for power, and he is already one home run short of his total from 2022 with half the at-bats. Given his newfound approach, I'm backing Joe to go over 1.5 bases for plus money tonight.
Connor Joe has a good matchup tonight against Braxton Garrett. Joe is hitting very well-off lefties in 2023. He is hitting .306 off lefties with a 1.009 OPS, compared to just a .216 average against righties with a .666 OPS. He has 14 extra-base hits off righties in 134 at-bats and 12 extra-base hits in just 72 at-bats off lefties. He has 22 total hits against lefties this season, meaning over half of his hits off lefties this season have been for extra bases. Braxton Garrett shuts down lefty hitters in the same fashion, but righties have lit him up. Righties are batting .269 off Garrett, and nearly half of those hits have been for extra bases (42%).
Garrett throws his Slider the most at 30%, but his sinker is not far behind at 25%. These are his two most utilized pitches, and while Joe has not hit sliders well this season, he has hit sinkers the best. Joe is batting .286 against sinkers, and he has a .490 slugging percentage against sinkers specifically. Garrett cannot throw his slider every pitch in the at-bat, or Joe will square one up, so he is bound to see at least a few sinkers. Joe is 2-3 off Garrett in his limiting time facing him, but he can easily continue that success into the matchup tonight.
Given the matchup, I love Joe to either hit two singles or grab an extra-base hit tonight off Garrett. Joe was on a four-game hitless streak last week, but he has three hits in the last two games, going 3-5 combined, so I think he is out of the small funk. I also love the price, as we are getting +130 on Joe, who has over half of his hits against lefties for extra bases.
Pick: Connor Joe O1.5 Bases +130 (Bet $100 to collect $230) FanDuel has the best odds
