Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction: Will Spencer Strider Dominate the Twins' Lineup?
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins prediction and pick for Monday night's showdown. With a limited MLB slate on the schedule, handicapper Ben Rajavuori has found value in tonight's inter-league matchup.
Ben Rajavuori - June 26, 2023, 4:18 PM EDT
3 minAtlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction: Will Spencer Strider Dominate the Twins' Lineup?
The Twins travel to Atlanta tonight to take on the Braves in a three-game series. The Twins will have their ace, Sonny Gray on the mound, while the Braves send out Spencer Strider, the strikeout machine. Strider has a good matchup against the Twins tonight and should be able to take advantage in his outing.
Braves vs. Twins Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: June 26, 2023
- Time: 7:20 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction
Strider started the 2023 season with five outings of 9+ strikeouts and a 1.8 ERA in April. Then, he hit a rough patch, and his ERA has risen to 3.93, but the strikeout stuff has been there and has even improved. Strider through 67% four-seam fastballs last season, which made it all the more impressive that he had as high of a strikeout rate as he did, but he has increased the usage of his slider and changeup in 2023. He still doesn't use his changeup much, but the spin rate is up 100 ticks from 2022. His slider is still his best strikeout pitch, and his whiff percentage is up to 56.5% in 2023 from 52% in 2022.
This is a match made in heaven for Strider tonight. The Twins have been absolutely horrible at the plate with strikeouts this season. The Twins rank an MLb worst at a 27.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The Twins have been striking out left and right at the plate, and they also rank an MLB lowest with just a 70% contact rate. That's below the Rockies, Royals, and Athletics. Now, they face the pitcher who leads the MLB with 136 strikeouts. Strider leads all starters with 1.62 strikeouts per inning. He also is in the 100th percentile with 19.8% swinging strikeouts. This is a nightmare matchup for the Twins right now.
The Twins have faced a few of the other top strikeout pitchers in the league this season, like Gerrit Cole, Lance Lynn, and Jesus Luzardo. All three put up 10+ strikeouts on the Twins. Strider's line tonight is 9.5 with minimal juice to the over. While 9.5 is a really high line for a strikeout prop, there's a reason this line is so high tonight. This is the MLB strikeout leader facing the team with the highest strikeout rate and lowest contact rate in the league. It's going to be ugly, and while I like the under in this game, I love Strider to hit at least 10 strikeouts tonight. Strider is also +320 to hit 12+ strikeouts tonight, and I could see that as a real probability for this game.
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins Pick
- Pick: Spencer Strider Over 9.5 Strikeouts @ -102 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
MLB Odds
