MLB Prop Bets Tonight: Is it Time to Buy Low on Luis Castillo?
Tonight's MLB prop bet pick from Krabs comes to us from the Washington Nationals vs. Seattle Mariners game. Luis Castillo is one of the best pitchers in the world, but he hasn't been lately. Is it time to fade him?
Krabs - June 26, 2023, 4:25 PM EDT
3 minMLB Prop Bets Tonight: Is it Time to Buy Low on Luis Castillo?
Luis Castillo has not been his sharpest self of late. The Mariners’ ace has allowed 12 hits and 10 earned runs over his previous three starts. Luckily for the 30-year-old righty, he faces one of the worst RHP-facing offenses in baseball tonight. The Nationals’ offense has overperformed overall in 2023, but they struggle mightily against right-handed starters. Castillo has a great matchup to bounce back against the Nationals who are coming off back-to-back wins in San Diego. Sell high on the Nationals, and buy low on the Mariners ace to dominate tonight.
MLB Prop Bets Tonight
Luis Castillo’s main issue recently has been giving up the long ball. Castillo has only allowed 11 home runs in 2023, but five of those have come in his last three starts. Luckily, the Nationals have the second-fewest home runs in baseball this season. The Nats don’t hit for power, they put hits together. This won’t work against Castillo and his nasty strikeout stuff.
Nobody on this Nationals roster has seen Castillo more than 12 times. Besides Lane Thomas, nobody on this Nats team has had any sort of success against him. Not only is Castillo’s pitching arsenal already presenting a mismatch for the Nationals’ offense, but those who have seen him before have mainly struggled. Don’t expect anything different tonight as Castillo takes the mound on his home field.
Castillo has been a different pitcher at home this season. On the road, he sports a 4.24 ERA, but at home, Castillo owns a 2.03 ERA in nine starts. That’s three more starts than he’s made on the road this season. It’s clear Castillo prefers pitching at home, another reason to back him tonight.
The Mariners are (-260) to beat the Nationals tonight. Instead of laying the juice, back Castillo on his earned runs allowed prop. Castillo is (+115) to allow less than 1.5 earned runs tonight. Betting this prop is like walking a very thin line, but the only way it doesn’t hit is if someone takes Castillo deep. In a pitchers-friendly ballpark, I don’t see the Nationals changing the narrative and hitting any home runs tonight. This team simply doesn’t hit home runs, and that has been the only way teams have found any success against the Mariners’ ace. Back Castillo to throw a gem tonight, and bet his under earned runs allowed prop. It’s at plus money, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pitches a shutout tonight…
MLB Prop Pick
- PICK: Luis Castillo u1.5 earned runs allowed (+115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
MLB Odds
