WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Cardinals vs. Astros Pick

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Cardinals vs. Astros Pick

The Houston Astros visit St. Louis tonight to take on the Cardinals in a three-game series from Busch Stadium. The Astros enter this game with a record of 42-36 and sit in second place in the AL Central behind the Texas Rangers. The Cardinals currently sit in last place in the NL Central and desperately need some wins before the all-star break to have a chance at the postseason. Jordan Montgomery will hit the mound first tonight and try to set the Cardinals up for a series-opening win tonight.

Jordan Montgomery is having a pretty good season so far. He has a 4-7 pitcher record but a 3.69 ERA and has given the Cardinals three straight quality starts. Montgomery had a rough patch in May, but he has been on point mostly outside of that rough stretch.

Montgomery, while his ERA is pretty good, has not had as good of strikeout numbers this season. Back in 2019, Montgomery's strikeout percentage was 26.3%, which is pretty good, as the MLB average is 22%. However, in 2020, that rate dropped to 24.4%, and in 2021, it was 24.5%. He never recovered, and his numbers have gone down even further, as he has hit 21.8% in both 2022 and this season. However, it has been working for him, as his new approach to getting weak contact has worked out better than going for strikeouts. 2019 is a bit of a toss-out since he only had two outings, but he had a 5.11 ERA in 10 outings in 2020, back when his strikeout rate was higher.

Since his strikeout numbers have dipped the last two seasons, he's actually been a much more consistent pitcher with a low ERA than the few previous seasons. Part of this new approach has been a heavy increase in the usage of his sinker, his go-to pitch. In 2020, when his ERA was inflated, he was throwing 26.6% sinkers at only 92.5 mph. This season, his sinker is up to 42% to become his most used pitch, and it has ticked up to 93.5 mph. This has led to fewer strikeouts but more weak contact. His whiff percentage on the sinker is only 13.5%, which is by far the lowest of any of the pitches in his arsenal.

What makes this good against the Astros is that you have to get them to hit weak instead of strike them out, especially if you are a left-handed pitcher. The Astros have the lowest strikeout percentage in the entire MLB against left-handed pitching at 17.2%. This works in favor of Montgomery, as he will look to get grounder and pop-outs instead of swings and misses. The Astros have crushed lefty pitching and have been tough outs for the southpaws that have faced them for the last few years.

The Astros have had 20 starts this season against left-handed pitchers, and only five have hits and five strikeouts. Four of them (Drew Smyly, Justin Steele, Max Fried, and JP Sears) were more "strikeout" pitchers than Montgomery. The only anomaly was Patrick Corbin, who hit five strikeouts with a line of 3.5 against the Astros on June 13th. Most left-handed starters have been hitting mostly two or three strikeouts in their outing, with some fours sprinkled in there as well. Rarely have lefties hit five or more against the Astros.

Montgomery's line tonight is 4.5, with some juice on the under. I'll gladly eat the juice, as I have him at three strikeouts tonight. Montgomery may have another quality start here, but even if he goes six innings, I expect it to be behind productive outs like groundball double plays and weak pop-ups, not strikeouts. The Astros are not easy to put away on strikes, especially for lefties. In 47 combined at-bats for the Astros' roster against Montgomery, they have nine strikeouts in 47 at-bats for a 19% strikeout rate. That's good enough for me. I'm taking the under.

2 Unit Pick: Jordan Montgomery U4.5 Strikeouts @ -140 Bet $100 to collect $171 FanDuel has the best odds