WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Pirates vs. Padres Pick
The San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates play game two of their series. WeBeatTheSpread shares his best bet for the game. Don't miss this premium MLB pick for Wednesday.
Ben Rajavuori - June 28, 2023, 4:42 PM EDT
5 minWeBeatTheSpread's Premium Pirates vs. Padres Pick
Two strikeout pitchers face off tonight in PNC Park as Blake Snell and Mitch Keller meet for game two between the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates. Although the Pirates have been struggling big time, they got a big 9-4 win yesterday in the series opener. Blake Snell will take the mound tonight to try and get the Padres to tie the series.
Blake Snell is feeling it right now. His 3.22 ERA this season is the lowest in his career since his 1.89 ERA CY Young season in 2018. Snell has been especially on point with his strikeouts. Snell is 4th in the entire MLB with 11.6 strikeouts per 9 average. In his last four outings, Snell has had 8, 12, 12, and 11 strikeouts for 43 strikeouts.
Snell faces a Pirates lineup that has really been struggling the past month, specifically the last few weeks. Over the past 15 days, the Pirates are dead last in the MLB with a .195 batting average and .572 OPS. It has been even worse against lefty pitchers, especially with strikeouts.
The Pirates have had a 29.1% strikeout rate against lefties over the past two weeks and a 39.2% strikeout rate against lefties over the last seven days. The last lefty they saw was Jesus Luzardo, who put up nine strikeouts with a line of 5.5. The game before that, they faced Braxton Garrett, who put up a career-high 13 strikeouts with a line of 5.5. Safe to say the Pirates are not seeing the ball well right now, which is music to Blake Snell's ears.
Snell is absolutely dealing right now. He has given up one earned run in his last five outings COMBINED! 31 innings with one earned run. On top of that, he is sitting down more batters than ever, and he's faced some decent lineups in there, like the San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, and Miami Marlins. His confidence is at an all-time high, and he is pitching like he was in his Cy Young season.
Snell should go at least six innings tonight, meaning he would need 1.33 strikeouts per inning at just six innings minimum to hit eight strikeouts with a line of 7.5 tonight. He is averaging 1.28 this season so far, but he has been way over that during this hot run, and the Pirates have been striking out at a nearly 40% rate against lefties the last few outings against Southpaws. Snell should easily hit eight tonight, and he could even hit ten again for +330 on FanDuel.
Pick: Blake Snell O7.5 Ks -102 (Bet $100 to collect $198) FanDuel has the best odds
