Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Prop Bet: Can Jeimer Candelario Heat Up Tonight?
The Cincinnati Reds are taking on the Washington Nationals. Can Jeimer Candelario heat up tonight? Stuart Durst provides his prediction and best prop bet for the game.
Stuart Durst - July 5, 2023, 4:41 PM EDT
5 minWashington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Prop Bet: Can Jeimer Candelario Heat Up Tonight?
In today’s article, I give out one of my favorite batter props on today’s slate. We’re targeting the Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds game, with two pitchers prone to giving up some power. Find out which National I’m trusting tonight!
Nationals vs. Reds Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: July 5, 2023
- Time: 7:05 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction
I’ve been looking for a way to fade Graham Ashcraft all day, and I think we found a good one here. Jeimer Candelario is currently hitting .274/slugging .538 against right-handed pitching. Josiah Gray is also one of the few Washington pitchers that has actually gotten run support this season. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair tonight, and I think he's going to be a big part of it.
Candelario is currently struggling against the Slider, but that’s really been Ashcraft’s only solid pitch. Lefties are still seeing 65%+ of the cutter/sinker combination, which is great for us. He’s allowing an OBA over .300 against both pitches, and I expect him to continue struggling.
Ashcraft wasn’t a high strikeout guy last season, but the biggest difference is the barrels. His barrel rate has almost doubled since last season, allowing a lot more hard contact. That’s great for Candelario, considering he’s slugging .524 and .511 against the cutter/sinker combination. The Nationals struggle as a whole against that pitch, but he should be one of the batters that can take advantage.
Overall we are just riding some very good recent form combined with some solid underlying stats. Ashcraft started the season strong against lefties, but he’s been pretty bad against both sides since then. Jeimer is one of the most consistent hitters in this Washington lineup, and he should have tons of R+RBI equity hitting in the four-hole. He’s currently priced at +600 to give up a home run, and I think that's some very solid value.
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Prop Bet
Jeimer Candelario o1.5 H+R+RBI -115 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
MLB Odds
