WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Twins vs. Royals Pick

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Twins vs. Royals Pick

The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals meet in the series finale tonight in Target Field, with the Royals facing a sweep. The Royals are pretty much out of playoff contention, despite it still being before the all-star break, but the Twins have a very real shot at winning the horrible AL Central. The Twins sit in first place at 44-43 after getting back above .500 with two wins in this series, while the Guardians are not far behind at 42-43. The Twins are looking to sweep tonight, and they have a good chance to do so with tonight's pitching matchup.

The Twins are sending out Pablo Lopez to start tonight. Lopez is the newest addition to the Twins' rotation, being traded from the Marlins in the offseason for a package that included Luis Arraez (single tear here for Twins fans). Lopez opened the season with four great starts, and then he was signed to a huge contract extension, and he was blown up over his next few starts. Lopez has been up and down all season, but where he has excelled is with strikeouts. Lopez is fourth in the MLB with 126 strikeouts and is in the 85th percentile with 1.24 strikeouts per inning in 2023. When Lopez hits his spots, he is a great swing-and-miss pitcher and can dominate good lineups. The good news is that the Royals are not a great lineup, so Lopez has an opportunity to string together his third quality start in a row tonight.

The Royals are sending out Alec Marsh for the start tonight. Marsh was the Royals' 16th-ranked prospect entering the season, and he has entered the rotation due to some injuries for the Royals. Marsh is making his second appearance in the MLB tonight after getting plastered by the Los Angeles Dodgers in his MLB debut. The Dodgers hung five runs on him in four innings, hitting two homers and drawing four walks. Marsh may struggle again tonight, as he is a primarily four-seam fastball pitcher. He has a decent slider, but when he gets in hitter-friendly counts, he either has to go to his fastball and give up a hard hit or risk missing his spot with the slider and walking the batter, which is exactly what the Dodgers did to him. Granted, the Dodgers have a much better lineup than the Twins, but the Twins have been hot at the plate, putting up 17 runs over the first two games of this series.

Marsh has not been the hottest prospect, as he had a 4.62 ERA in 14 starts in AA and AAA in the minors in 2023 before getting called up, and he may go back down soon if he struggles again tonight. His fastball is way too hittable, and he has struggled with walks at every level, as he has yet to control his off-speed pitches at the higher levels. He averaged .5 walks per inning in the minors this season, and major league hitters will be even tougher to get to chase. The Twins have struck out a lot this season, but they also take a lot of walks.

The pitching matchup is clearly on the Twin's side in this matchup. Lopez has been pitching well in his last few starts and is picking up momentum, while I'm not sure Marsh has big-league stuff yet. The Twins also have one of the best bullpens in the league behind Lopez once he is out of the game. The biggest knock on the Twins this season has been their poor hitting, but they have been hot in this series, and that should continue tonight. As a Twins fan, I'm always weary of betting on my own team, but this is a good spot for them tonight.

Pick: Twins -1.5 (-130) (Bet $100 to collect $176 FanDuel has the best odds