Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Is Julio Urias Ready to Dominate Tonight?
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates close out a four-game series. Is Julio Urias ready to dominate on the mound tonight? Ben Rajavuori breaks it down.
Ben Rajavuori - July 6, 2023, 4:30 PM EDT
5 minLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Is Julio Urias Ready to Dominate Tonight?
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates close out a four-game series from Dodger Stadium tonight, with the Dodgers leading the series two to one after a comeback win last night. The Dodgers were down 0-4 heading into the bottom of the fourth but scored six runs across the fourth and fifth inning to win 6-4. Tonight, Julio Urias will take the bump for the Dodgers to try and win the series.
Dodgers vs. Pirates Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: July 6, 2023
- Time: 10:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Julio Urias has been up and down in 2023, but there is a common theme with his struggles. Urias has maybe the most extreme home/road splits in the entire league. Urias is 4-1 at home with a 1.99 ERA and 1-4 on the road with an 8.44 ERA. He has 31.2 innings pitched at home, which is five more innings than he has pitched on the road, yet he has only given up seven earned runs at home and 25 on the road.
He has only given up two walks in 31.2 innings at home, whereas he has 11 walks in just 26.2 innings on the road. It is common that pitchers perform better at home, but I haven't seen many other pitchers with a bigger disparity in their home/road splits than Urias this season.
Along with all his other numbers, his strikeouts are up at home too. He has 1.02 strikeouts per inning at home, while he has just .88 strikeouts per inning on the road. He has a good matchup for strikeouts against the Pirates tonight, who have been struggling against left-handed pitching.
The Pirates haven't necessarily been horrible with strikeouts against lefties on the season, although there is room for improvement. They have the 13th-highest strikeout rate versus lefties in 2023 at 22.8%. However, that included when the Pirates were hot to start the season, and they have been struggling for the last six weeks or so.
Over the past 30 days, the Pirates have the fifth-highest strikeout rate versus lefties at 26.6%. The last three lefty starters the Pirates have faced, Blake Snell, Jesus Luzardo, and Braxton Garrett, put up 10, 9, and 13 strikeouts, respectively. The line for Urias tonight is 5.5 with plus money on the over.
In five starts at home this season, Urias has surpassed five strikeouts in four of the five. The only start he missed five-plus was against the Padres, who have been tricky for lefties. Urias went on the road to face the Pirates earlier in the season and went 5.2 innings while giving up six earned runs.
It was a horrible outing, but even with many struggles in that start, Urias still hit five strikeouts. Now, back at home, I expect Urias to come out a lot stronger against the struggling Pirates and take care of business. Lefties have been striking the Pirates out at a high rate lately, and that should continue tonight with Urias on the bump in Dodger Stadium.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
2 Unit Pick: Julio Urias Over 5.5 Strikeouts +115 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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