Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction: Do the Astros Have The Edge Over Luis Castillo, Mariners?
The Houston Astros dropped game one of the series to the Seattle Mariners after George Kirby put on a masterful performance. Can Luis Castillo re-create Kirby's success again tonight? Let’s break it down.
Joey Ruiz - July 7, 2023, 5:32 PM EDT
5 minHouston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction: Do the Astros Have The Edge Over Luis Castillo, Mariners?
Hunter Brown is pitching tonight for the Houston Astros, and he has been one of the biggest bright spots of the season for the Astros to this point. Brown has been one of the best rookie pitchers in the league and comes into this game with an ERA of just under four, but his ERA has been under three or around the mid-threes for most of the season, but he has struggled over his last few starts, as he was tagged for ten total hits against the Texas Rangers the last time out so he was hit fairly hard.
Astros vs. Mariners Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: July 7, 2023
- Time: 8:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction
Brown has faced some stiff competition over his last two starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Rangers, but I think this matchup against a below-average Seattle Mariners offense is the perfect spot for Brown to get back on track. In his previous home start before allowing six earned runs to the New York Mets, brown went seven scoreless innings against the nationals in a very impressive performance as he led the Astros to a win.
Now the Washington Nationals are a worse offensive team than the Mariners, but they are more comparable to Seattle than the Dodgers or Rangers. Brown has also done an extraordinary job of bouncing back this season after a bad/tough start. Brown has only allowed eight earned runs in 37 1/3rds innings in his starts following an appearance where he gave up three or more earned runs for an ERA of 1.93 in such instances.
Tonight’s game fits that mold, too, as he gave up ten hits and three ER in his last start against Texas and now gets to face a much less potent Seattle offense. On the other side for the Mariners tonight will be their ace in Luis Castillo, who has had a lot of struggles in his own right over his last few appearances. Castillo has a 4.50 ERA over his last four starts, which isn’t terrible, but it isn’t elite for his typical high-profile standard.
Control has been a bit of an issue for Castillo, as he has averaged just under three walks per game over his last four starts combined. This should be an extremely low-scoring game with two excellent pitchers on both sides. Still, I think the Astros have a slight advantage here, considering Castillo’s recent woes and Brown’s ability to bounce back, specifically after poor starts.
With that being said, I am rolling with Astros F5 ML at -110 and Astros full game ML at -103 for 1U each as my most confident MLB plays of the day. I see the Astros squeezing out a 2-1 or 2-0 lead after five innings and winning a 4-2 type ball game in the end.
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Pick
- 1u Astros F5 ML -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- 1u Astros full game ML -103 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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