Home Run Derby Betting Picks: Can Julio Rodriguez Avenge Himself At 2023 Home Run Derby?
The 2023 Home Run Derby is here. Can Julio Rodriguez avenge himself at the 2023 Home Run Derby? Ben Rajavuori answers and shares his best betting picks for the contest.
Ben Rajavuori - July 10, 2023, 2:57 PM EDT
5 minHome Run Derby Betting Picks: Can Julio Rodriguez Avenge Himself At 2023 Home Run Derby?
The 2023 Home Run Derby is here, and there are a few familiar faces in the lineup and some new ones. One familiar face is Julio Rodriguez, who returns for the 2023 Derby after a one-home run loss in the finals last year, losing to Juan Soto 18-19. Now, Rodriguez is back for revenge and is fourth in odds at +500 on FanDuel to take home the trophy.
2023 MLB Home Run Derby Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, July 10, 2023
- Start Time: 8:00 pm ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
Home Run Derby Prediction
There are a few good reasons why Rodriguez is my favorite bet to take in the derby this year. First, this year's all-star celebration takes place in T-Mobile Park, Julio Rodriguez's home. Rodriguez hits in T-Mobile Park more than anyone in the pool, giving him a slightly undervalued advantage. It may not seem like a huge advantage, but because Rodriguez has so many games played in the park, he knows how hard he needs to hit it to clear the wall, and he is more familiar with the feel of the park. Also, for what it's worth, the crowd will cheer loudest for him being the hometown hitter, which may give him an extra boost when he gets drained late in the derby.
Julio Rodriguez was just a rookie last season when he participated in the Home Run Derby for the first time, but that did not stop him from putting on a show. Rodriguez has immense power, which was on full display, putting up 32 home runs in the first round and 31 in the second. With those two rounds, Rodriguez became the first Derby participant in history to record multiple 30-plus home run rounds. Rodriguez's 81 total home runs in last year's Derby were second all-time.
While two 30-plus rounds were impressive, I think that was actually his undoing last year. He went all out in the first two rounds and was gassed for the last round. His home run total dropped each round, and he only had 18 in the finals against Soto after blasting 63 in the first two rounds. A year older and a bit wiser, I expect Rodriguez to have a more measured approach and conserve some energy. He also has a familiar face pitching to him this year.
One of the most important aspects of winning the Derby is your pitcher. Some guys choose their dads, which is a nice sentiment, but sometimes their dads may suck at throwing batting practice. Rodriguez chose someone he could trust to throw pitches right down the middle, Franmy Pena, his childhood friend. I get that it's still a sentimental pick, but he and Franmy played together growing up, so the chemistry was there. Pena threw right down the middle and was very accurate across all three rounds, and Rodriguez ended up hitting the second-most home runs in a Derby in history, so clearly, Pena can throw it well.
Rodriguez is the seven seed this season because he's actually a bit behind on home runs, but he is still one of the most powerful batters in the league. He's in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity and in the 97th percentile in max exit velocity. Now that he's gotten reps in a Derby before and was one home run short of winning it, I expect him to exact his revenge this season and take the trophy. He is the fourth-highest favorite at +500 on FanDuel behind Pete Alonso, Vadimir Guerrero Jr., and Luis Robert, which gives us value on a great line here. J Rod wins it at home, just like Bryce Harper in 2019.
Home Run Derby Pick
Home Run Derby 2023 Winner: Julio Rodriguez +500 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
MLB Odds
