Best MLB Home Run Bets: Lock In This Expert’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Friday
Which players can hit the long ball today? Jason Radowitz shares his best MLB home run bets for Friday's slate. Don't miss these plus-money MLB player prop bets.
Jason Radowitz - July 14, 2023, 9:34 AM EDT
5 minBest MLB Home Run Bets: Lock In This Expert's Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Friday
We had an awesome first half of the MLB season with our home run props. We even had a stretch where we had a full week of hitting at least one home run prop.
I'd love to ride that momentum into the second half.
Here are three players I like to hit home runs in tonight's ball games.
July 14 Best MLB Home Run Props
Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run +280 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
Matt Olson has slugged a .447 ISO and wOBA of .481 over the last month against righties. He'll face Michael Kopech, who has allowed a .286 ISO and wOBA of .492 to his previous 30 lefties.
Kopech has struck out over 30% of left-handed batters this season. But over the last month, he's only struck out 20% of lefties.
He's also allowed 40% of hard contact and 26.7% of line drives against lefties in the last month.
Olson's got a great matchup to hit a homer tonight.
Randy Arozarena to Hit a Home Run +390 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
Do we think Randy Arozarena still feels good after his Home Run Derby appearance? I do.
Randy Arozarena will take on a right-handed pitcher in Alec Marsh. Since Marsh's debut, he's allowed a .444 ISO and wOBA of .436 to his first 19 righties. He's earned just 14.3% of ground balls and has given up 42.9% of fly balls with 35.7% of line drives.
Arozarena has high strikeouts to righties. But Marsh has earned just 21.1% of strikeouts against righties so far. That's good news for Arozarena.
Take him to go deep tonight.
Jeimer Candelario to Hit a Home Run +600 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
Jeimer Candelario has hit a .271 ISO and wOBA of .426 against his last 66 righties faced. He'll go up against Miles Mikolas, who has some of the weirdest stats in the MLB this year.
Mikolas has struck out only 12.5% of lefties over the last month. He's also allowed a .226 ISO and wOBA of .357 to his previous 56 lefties. The right-hander has also given up 57.4% of hard contact and has allowed close to 30% of line drives with 34% of fly balls over the last 30 days to lefties.
Candelario has minimized ground balls and has still hit over 19% of line drives. He's not the biggest power hitter, but he has a great matchup against Mikolas. At +600, there's value here.
Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today
- Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+280) (Bet $100 to collect $380)
- Randy Arozarena to Hit a Home Run (+390) (Bet $100 to collect $490)
- Jeimer Candelario to Hit a Home Run (+600) (Bet $100 to collect $700)
MLB Odds
