MLB Home Run Prop Picks Today: Can Willy Adames, Ronald Acuna Jr. Go Yard?
The MLB is back after the All-Star break. Can Willy Adames and Ronald Acuna Jr. go yard in their games tonight? MJCLocks cooked up a few plus-money home run props for Friday's slate.
MJC Locks - July 14, 2023, 9:18 AM EDT
5 minMLB Home Run Prop Picks Today: Can Willy Adames, Ronald Acuna Jr. Go Yard?
The MLB is back after the All-Star break! So, it makes sense that MJC Locks is here to give us some home run prop picks that come to us at +1786. Right now, the best odds for today's MLB prop picks are at Bet365 and FanDuel, but make sure you shop around for the best odds when placing your bets.
MLB Home Run Prop Picks Today
I’m taking Willy Adames to hit a home run today for a few reasons. He will see the righty, Graham Ashcraft, someone he’s had success against in the past. He’s hit two home runs in three games against Ashcraft (eight total at-bats) and will get a great chance at another one in arguably the best homerun ballpark in the MLB. Ashcraft has given up lots of home runs this season, especially at home. He’s allowed 10 of his 13 home runs there and owns a 2.21 HR/nine at home versus right-handed batters, which is very high. I’m expecting more of the same for Ashcraft here, and the books seem to agree, as the Milwaukee Brewers are favored (-120) in this game with a high total set (O/U 10).
Willy Adames is coming into this game swinging a very hot bat. Adames has ten extra-base hits in his last ten games, including four home runs in his last five games. He will see predominantly cutters (51%) and sinkers (41%) versus Ashcraft, as those are the top two pitches that Ashcraft throws to right-handed batters. These are two pitches that Adames has shown he can hit out of the park over the last two seasons. Against right-handed pitchers, Adames has hit 12 home runs in 152 plate appearances (7.9% HR/PA) versus sliders and three home runs in 54 plate appearances (5.6% HR/PA) versus cutters (2022-2023 seasons). With a solid chance of 5+ plate appearances and a great matchup in one of the best home run ballparks, I’m expecting Adames to send one into the bleachers.
I also love Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit a home run today. Acuna will get a matchup with Michael Kopech, who has been extremely prone to allowing home runs this season. Kopech has allowed 17 home runs (21 if all starts were at Truist Park), with 11 of those coming to right-handed batters this year. Kopech ranks in the bottom one percentile in barrel percentage allowed, and his home run/nine metric versus right-handed batters stands at 2.05, which is extremely high. He also owns a 34.7 fly ball percentage which is much higher than the league average at 23.3%. This makes for a great pitcher to target for home runs, and is why I am looking at Acuna in this spot.
Acuna has been crushing baseballs at home these past couple of weeks, hitting five home runs in the last six games, and I expect him to continue doing just that. Kopech predominately throws four-seam fastballs (62%) and sliders (33%) to right-handed batters this season which are two pitches that Acuna has had tons of success against this season. Against right-handed pitching, he has hit a combined eight home runs in 147 plate appearances (5.4 percentage HR/PA) versus the two pitches, with a .338 AVG and .618 SLG versus four-seam fastballs and a .339 AVG and .627 SLG versus sliders. Additionally, his hard-hit rates are 60% (4FB) and 59% (Slider) versus the two pitches. I think these matchups set up nicely for Acuna, and I’m expecting him to barrel one up and hit it out of the park for us.
MLB Home Run Prop Picks Today - Friday's MLB Home Run Prop Picks
*Playing to win 1U - Willy Adames to Hit a Homerun (+390 @ FanDuel)
*Playing to win 1U - Ronald Acuna Jr. to Hit a Homerun (+310 @ Bet365)
*.25U - 2 Leg Parlay (+1786 @ Bet365)
MLB Odds
