WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Blue Jays vs. Padres Pick

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Blue Jays vs. Padres Pick

The Toronto Blue Jays look to even the series against the Padres tonight after dropping the opener in a 1-9 rout. Alek Manoah looked like his 2023 self once again, while Joe Musgrove continued to mow through hitters like he has all season. Tonight, it's Jose Berrios up against Yu Darvish. The Jays are slightly favored at -120 to even the series tonight.

Yu Darvish has excelled consistently since debuting with the Rangers in 2012, sporting a 3.57 career ERA in his now 12th season in the majors. Darvish even finished second in Cy Young voting in 2020 with the Cubs, but since then, he has not done as well on the Padres. In fact, he is having one of his worst seasons this year.

The biggest difference for Davrish has been a decreased performance in his slider. In 2020, the year Darvish finished runner-up for the Cy Young, opponents were only hitting .230 off his slider, and it was his most used pitch by far. Fast forward to 2023, and the slider is still one of his most used pitches, but opponents are hitting .458 off it. Darvish loved using his slider to set up his fastball, which was his top put-away pitch in 2020, as opponents only hit 1.90 off it, but in 2023, opponents are hitting .283 off his four-seamer and the put-away percentage has dropped to just 12%. Darvish's best pitch is now his sweeper, but he still only throws that under 20% of the time, meaning opponents are eating him up on the slider and four-seam fastball.

On the other side, Jose Berrios gets the ball for the Jays. Berrios is the complete opposite of Darvish, as he is actually having one of the best years of his career. Although the season isn't over, his current 3.41 ERA is the lowest he has ever had, and that's probably in part due to the pitching staff working with him in Toronto. Berrios was coming off one of the worst seasons in his career entering this season, but he has seemed to figure it out. He has pitched even better at home, too. He has a 2.83 home ERA and a 3.84 road ERA.

Yesterday, it was the Padres' ace against Alek Monoah, who was just struggling in single A ball a few weeks ago. Tonight, the roles flip, as Darvish is struggling while Berrios is having a career year. Darvish has struggled even more on the road, and the Jays should eat him up tonight. I expect the Jays to bounce back at home tonight and to even the series.

Pick: Blue Jays ML (-120) (Bet $100 to collect $183) FanDuel has the best odds