Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction: Can Luis Castillo Get Revenge?
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners prediction and pick for Monday's game. Can Luis Castillo get his revenge tonight against the Twins? Handicapper Ben Rajavuori breaks down his favorite play from this game.
Ben Rajavuori - July 24, 2023, 4:50 PM EDT
3 minMinnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction: Can Luis Castillo Get Revenge?
The Twins and Mariners meet once again after the Twins took two of four in their series last week in Seattle. This week, the Mariners travel to the Twin Cities for a three-game set. The openers for this series are Luis Castillo for the Mariners and Kenta Maeda for the Twins. These two matched up the last series as well, with Maeda and the Twins winning 6-3. Can Castillo get revenge this week?
Twins vs. Mariners Date, Time and Where to Watch
- Date: July 24, 2023
- Time: 7:40 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLBTV
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction
The Twins come into this series with a bunch of momentum. They are coming off a sweep of the White Sox and they are now 8-2 since the all-star break, which leads the MLB. They have slowly increased their lead in the AL Central, while the Guardians fell back below .500.
The big difference for the Twins has been the bats waking up. The Twins are first in the league with an .859 OPS since the all-star break. The Twins were already top five in team ERA between both starters and the bullpen, but now that their hitting has improved, they have looked tremendous since the break.
Kenta Maeda gets the ball first for the Twins and he has been showing improvements. Maeda struggled out of the gate this season, but since returning from injury, he has looked much better. He has posted quality starts in two of three appearances in July, including a 6.1-inning outing against the Mariners last week, giving up just two earned runs.
On the other side, Luis Castillo has been doing well, but he has not gotten a ton of run support behind him. As a result, the Mariners are 3-6 in Castillo's last nine starts, despite five of those being quality starts. Although Castillo racked up 11 strikeouts in his start against the Twins, he still got tagged for two home runs and six hits. This may happen again tonight because he has been much worse against left-handed hitters, something the Twins lineup is filled with. Right-handed hitters are only batting .189 off Castillo with a .571 OPS, but left-handed hitters are batting .234 with a .747 OPS off Castillo. The Twins' lineup tonight could be disastrous for him.
Seven of the Twins' batters are lefties (Castro is a switch-hitter who hits lefty against righties), including every batter from the 2-7 spot. Rookie Edouard Julien went 2-2 with a home run off Castillo last week, and he has been hitting righties very well, so he could do so again. With how well the Twins have been hitting, this lefty-dominant lineup should feast off Castillo.
As a Twins fan, it's hard not to sound biased, but this is a great spot to take the Twins. I try not to bet on them often, but they are being undervalued with this lefty lineup against Castillo. Sure, they could strike out 10+ times against him again, but he gives up hard contact, and the Twins lead the league in OPS since the break. Maeda has been looking better, and the bullpen is doing good as well. This is a great price on the Twins tonight.
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners Pick
- Pick: Twins ML @ -108 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
