Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction: Can Corbin Burnes, Brewers Dominate?
The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds meet tonight for the second game in their series. Can Corbin Burnes and the Brewers dominate? Ben Rajavuori breaks down this game.
Ben Rajavuori - July 25, 2023, 4:46 PM EDT
5 minMilwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction: Can Corbin Burnes, Brewers Dominate?
The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds are meeting again for their third series of July, and the Brewers have been dominant. The Brewers are 9-2 against the Reds this season, and only four of those have been at home. The Brewers won again yesterday, and a win tonight with secure another series win for the Milwaukee faithful. Can they do it again?
Brewers vs. Reds Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: July 25, 2023
- Time: 8:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Starting on the bump for the Brewers is Corbin Burnes. Burnes has been having another excellent season for the Brewers with a 3.49 ERA. Burnes joined the MLB with the Brewers in 2018 and has been stellar since, posting a 3.26 career ERA in Milwaukee. Tonight, he is tasked with shutting down the Reds, which is something he has done very well historically.
Burnes has seven career starts against the Reds, and he has posted a quality start in six of them. He has five straight quality starts against the Reds, including in all three outings against them this season. In Burnes' last five meetings with the Reds dating back to the beginning of last season, Burnes has a 2.37 ERA. Burnes has dominated some of the Reds' best hitters. TJ Friedl is 1-8 off Burnes, Matt McLain is 1-8, Jake Fraley is 1-10, Jonathan India is 2-14, and Joey Votto is 3-19. None of the other hitters in the lineup have enough at-bats to really have reliable data, but the ones that do, do not have good numbers off Burnes. Burnes has posted 14-straight scoreless innings over his last two starts, and numbers point to him having another good night tonight.
On the other side is rookie Andrew Abbott. Abbott entered this season as one of the Reds' top pitching prospects, and it is now easy to see why. Abbott is 5-2 with a 2.1 ERA across his first nine MLB starts. However, he may struggle tonight.
Abbott has had a good outing in pretty much every start he has made so far this season except for one. That was a start against the Brewers in which he gave up six earned runs in 4.1 innings. Abbott's debut outing was against the Brewers as well, but that time, he posted a scoreless outing in six innings while striking out six. The problem is that Abbott has seen the Brewers A LOT this early on, which only increases the advantage for hitters. His pitches are fresh in their minds, and by this point, they probably have recognized the scouting report with how much they have studied Abbott the last few weeks.
This will be Abbott's fourth start against the Brewers in just six weeks. It will be his third time facing the Brewers in his last four starts. While Burnes is in a similar situation, he has proven he can dominate the Reds every time, and the Reds have seen him for years while still struggling. The same cannot be said for Abbott, who was tagged pretty badly two times ago against the Brewers and also gave up two home runs in his last start against them. Starting against the same team three times in one month is hard enough for any pitcher, but especially a rookie. Even though Abbott is an impressive rookie, this is a tough situation to pitch in.
I am going with the Brewers here simply because Burnes has shown time and time again that he can dominate the Reds' lineup. The Brewers got to Abbott earlier in July, and they have been hitting much better recently, making me think they can get him out of the game quickly. The Reds' bullpen has been worked lately, and the Brewers should be able to take advantage. Back the Brewers to extend the season series against the Reds to 10-2 tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick
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