Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Picks: Can the Reds Get to Marcus Stroman?

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Picks: Can the Reds Get to Marcus Stroman?

The Cubs are fighting for their lives in the NL Central division, and after going 8-2 over their last ten, are now only four games behind first place. The good news for the Cubs is they have a four-game series in Wrigley Field to start the week against the team they are four games behind, the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have reclaimed first place in the division after winning a three-game series against the Dodgers, while the Brewers choked the division lead over the weekend after getting swept by the Braves. Can the Cubs make a dent in their deficit and contend for first place by the end of the week?

Cubs vs. Reds Date, Time and Where to Watch

• Date: July 31, 2023
• Time: 8:05 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Picks

Andrew Abbott is making a strong case for one of the best rookie seasons ever. He doesn't technically qualify since he doesn't have enough innings pitched yet (61.2), but if he did, he would have the lowest ERA in the league with a 1.90 ERA. The lowest qualifying pitcher is Blake Snell with a 2.5 ERA, but no one starting in the league with over 30 innings pitched has a lower ERA than Andrew Abbott. He has not been playing against a bad schedule, either. Abbott has started 10 games in his MLB career, and only three of those 10 were against teams below .500. That includes four starts against the Brewers, and starts against the Orioles, Astros, and Giants. Abbott has only had one start against a truly "bad" team and that was the Rockies.

Out of his 10 starts, 8 have been quality starts. This is just a truly impressive start from a Southpaw rookie, and he has shown incredible command as well. There's no surprise to see the Reds have won 8 of the 10 games Abbott has started, and both losses were against the Brewers in back-to-back starts.

Tonight, Abbott starts against the Cubs, who have been hot, but the Cubs have never seen Abbott before, and he has been carving every lineup he has seen outside of the Brewers, who only had success because they had three starts against him in the same month. On the other side, the Reds should have success against a stalling Stroman.

Marcus Stroman started the season off looking like he was going to contend for a Cy Young award, but the wheels have fallen off completely. Over his first eight starts of the season, Stroman racked up seven quality starts. Stroman went into May sporting a 2.3 ERA. He then ended May with a 2.87 ERA, and he had a 2.17 ERA in June. He was cooking, but then hit a wall in July. Across five starts this month, Stroman has a 7.99 ERA and has looked horrible on the mound. He has just one quality start in five outings, and the Cubs have lost three of his five starts this month. Over Stroman's last six starts combined, he has given up 28 runs. I'm not sure what has happened to Stroman, but it seems like he is in a funk right now, and the Reds have been hitting well at the plate.

The Reds have strangely been a better team on the road, posting a 28-26 home record and 30-23 road record. The Cubs have usually been a very strong home team, but they are only 27-26 in Wrigley Field this season. The Cubs have also been beating up on bad teams and struggling against good teams, as they are 28-13 against teams under .500 and a much worse 25-39 against teams above .500. This is a series I expect the Reds to fight strong in, as they know the significance of this series in the division standings, and they have their ace rookie on the mound in the series opener. I'm backing Andrew Abbott on the first five to keep the Cubs quiet, and I'm staying away from a full-game bet, as the Reds bullpen has been inconsistent all season. As long as this one is tied after five or the Reds are winning, we cash. I like my odds in this spot.

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick

PICK: 2 Units - Reds First Five +.5 @ -138 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds