Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet: Can the Jays Bounce Back Against Logan Allen?

Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet: Can the Jays Bounce Back Against Logan Allen?

The Jays and Guardians meet in Progressive Field tonight for game three of their four-game series. The Jays took game one but then were shut out in game two yesterday, losing 0-1 behind another excellent start from rookie Tanner Bibee. Tonight, they face another rookie, Logan Allen, and hope to not get shut out again and lose control of the series.

Blue Jays vs. Guardians Date, Time and Where to Watch

• Date: August 9, 2023
• Time: 7:10 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet

The Guardians made an interesting choice at the deadline, trading away shortstop Amed Rosario (which wasn't a bad trade necessarily) and starting pitcher Aaron Civale. Civale was a bit of a surprise, as the Guardians are only a few games behind first in the AL Central, but the Guardians essentially "sold" at the deadline. Part of the school of thought was probably that the Guardians have several young pitchers that can hold down the rotation, one of which being Logan Allen.

Allen has had a pretty successful debut season, sporting a 3.65 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 85 innings. Allen had a 2.75 ERA over his first six starts through the end of June, but since then, he has been a little more inconsistent. While he still comes out and has good outings, like his last start against the White Sox where he pitched 6 innings with 2 earned runs, he has had more bad outings than at the beginning of the season. He had back-to-back starts where he struggled against the White Sox and Royals in July where he gave up 9 runs in 13 innings. While every pitcher has bad starts, seeing Allen start to fall off a bit after a very strong start to the season is a bit of a red flag for me, especially considering his matchup tonight.

No team has dominated lefties like the Blue Jays lately. In the last month, the Blue Jays are hitting .324 off lefty pitchers with a 9.47 OPS, which is both way above any other team in the MLB. Second is the Padres with a .311 average and .898 OPS. Daulton Varsho (.600 average), Alejandro Kirk (.333 average), and Whit Merrifield (.321 average) have been crushing lefties like no other the past month, and new addition Paul Dejong has been much better against lefties this season as well. Also, the Jays just called up Davis Schneider, who has started his MLB career 9-17 (.529) after crushing AAA. He has only played four games, but he already has 2 home runs and has been making an impact in the lineup. Despite losing Bo Bichette, the Jays have been dominating lefties, and have another good opportunity to do so against Allen tonight.

Jay's starter has been incredibly consistent this season. He has not had above a 4.0 ERA in any month this season, and he has recorded a quality start every time after he has had a bad start. Gausman has always been incredible at bouncing back after a frustrating start, and he struggled last time out against the Orioles, giving up 3 runs in 4.1 innings while the Jays lost 1-6. Given his history with strong bounce-backs, I expect another quality start from Gausman tonight.

The Jays had no offense yesterday against Bibee, but they should not struggle tonight against lefty Logan Allen. This lineup is built to dominate lefties, given that almost every bat is a righty in the lineup. Allen has struggled more against righties, allowing a .268 batting average to righties and just a .199 to lefties. Gausman should hold down the Guardians bats and the Jays should cruise to an early lead.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pick

• Pick: Toronto Blue Jays First Five -.5 @ -120 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds