Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet: Can the Dodgers Stay Hot Against Wade Miley Tonight?
The Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers play Game 2 of their series. Can the Dodgers stay hot against Wade Miley tonight? Ben Rajavuori answers.
Ben Rajavuori - August 16, 2023, 4:46 PM EDT
7 minLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet: Can the Dodgers Stay Hot Against Wade Miley Tonight?
The Los Angeles Dodgers had a come-from-behind win in the series opener last night to beat the Milwaukee Brewers 6-2 and extend their win streak to nine games. The Brewers have been playing good ball as well, but both the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs are hot on their tail in the NL Central, with both teams tied for 3.5 games behind. Tonight, Wade Miley takes the mound against Clayton Kershaw to try and pull off the upset as +210 underdogs.
Dodgers vs. Brewers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: August 16, 2023
- Time: 10:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
After a few slow months of the Dodgers going 12-12 in June and 13-10 in July, the Dodgers are having their best month of the season in August. They are now 13-1 in August, tying their wins in July just halfway through this month. The Dodgers have looked like their usual dominant selves as of late, going 22-8 over their last 30 games, which leads the MLB.
The Dodgers went out and got Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez at the deadline, and both are rounding out the Dodger's lineup, which is as scary as ever. Enrique Hernandez, specifically, is hitting .319 with the Dodgers and has been an excellent addition in the bottom half of the order.
As if Clayton Kershaw's ERA was not impressive enough at 2.51, he's been even better at home. Kershaw is 4-1 at home with a 1.71 ERA. He has yet to give up more than two runs in any start at home this season, and there's no reason to believe he should not be as dominant against the Brewers tonight. In 101 at-bats against the Brewers roster, Kershaw has allowed just a .198 batting average and only eight RBIs.
On the other hand, stands Wade Miley, who has also been impressive this season. Miley is 6-2 with a 2.9 ERA this season across 77.2 innings. However, when you take a closer look at his dominance, there is a case to be made that he is not very proven against good teams this season.
In Miley's 15 starts, ten have been against teams below .500, and five have been against teams above .500. In the ten games against teams below .500, Miley is 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA and a .98 WHIP. In the five games against teams above .500, Miley is 2-2 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP. It seems intuitive that a pitcher would be worse against better teams, but the jump to over a 5.5 ERA for a pitcher who has looked dominant all season is glaring.
Also, the top of the Dodger's order has crushed Miley historically. Mookie Betts is 9-19 (.474) with a home run off Miley. Freddie Freeman is 8-23 (.348) with two home runs. Will Smith is 2-5 (.400), with both hits being home runs. With the wind blowing out to center and the Dodgers being much better hitters at home, it's not out of the question that Miley may give up a few long balls tonight.
There is a bit of juice on this play, but it's worth it. Miley's seemingly very low ERA is covered up by most of his starts coming against bad teams. Kershaw has been utterly dominant this season and has the lowest home ERA of any pitcher in the league this season. The Dodgers are playing their best baseball of the season right now, and after a come-from-behind win yesterday, they have all the momentum. The Dodgers should be up after five.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet
2 Unit Pick: Dodgers First Five -.5 -150 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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