Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can Kevin Gausman Silence the Phillies' Bats?
The Toronto Blue Jays take on the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. Can Kevin Gausman silence the Phillies' bats? Handicapper Ben Rajavuori breaks down this game.
Ben Rajavuori - August 16, 2023, 5:00 PM EDT
5 minToronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can Kevin Gausman Silence the Phillies' Bats?
The Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies meet in game two of the series tonight in Rogers Centre in Toronto, with the Blue Jays taking the game on in a low-scoring, 2-1 affair. Tonight has all the makings of another low-scoring affair, with Aaron Nola and Kevin Gausman taking the mound tonight as the starters. For this bet, I'm honing in on Gausman specifically.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: August 16, 2023
- Time: 7:07 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Kevin Gausman has been absolutely incredible for the Blue Jays since joining last season in 2022. He had a 3.35 ERA last season and has been ever better this year with a 3.04. Along with his low ERA, is one of the highest strikeout-per-inning rates in the MLB. Gausman has 1.32 strikeouts per inning, ranking in the 92nd percentile among the MLB. At home, he has been even better, with a 2.71 ERA. However, most impressively, Gausman is second in the ENTIRE MLB with 1.44 strikeouts per inning at home. Spencer Strider is unsurprisingly first in that category. Still, Gausman is ahead of Shohei Ohtani, Gerrit Cole, and Luis Castillo in this category.
At the same time as Gausman is peaking, the Phillies' strikeout numbers have been up a tick as well. Over the last 30 days, the Phillies have the 10th-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the league at 24.2%. The last three starters they have faced have all hit seven strikeouts. Kevin Gausman's line tonight is 6.5, with some juice on the over.
Six strikeouts seem to be the absolute floor for Gausman. He has hit six or more strikeouts in 18/23, or 78%, of his starts this season. At home, Gausman has hit seven-plus strikeouts in eight of his 11 starts, or 73%. Two of those misses were against the Orioles, who have been a tough team to strike out. Gausman has hit double-digit strikeouts in six of his 11 starts at home as well.
In 112 at-bats for the Phillies' lineup tonight against Gausman, they have struck out 29 times, good for a 26% strikeout rate. In Gausman's start against the Phillies earlier this season, he had nine strikeouts in six innings. That was on the road. Tonight, at home, as the second-highest strikeout pitcher in the league, I expect Gausman to dominate the lineup again. Schwarber is batting leadoff again and has five strikeouts in ten at-bats off Gausman, so he may be good for two or three himself tonight. Seven strikeouts is a very reachable line for Gausman here.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick
Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts -146 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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