Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet: Will Orioles Get the Better of Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays?
The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays start their series tonight. Will the Orioles get the better of Yusei Kikuchi and the Blue Jays? Ben Rajavuori provides his prediction and pick for the game.
Ben Rajavuori - August 22, 2023, 4:25 PM EDT
6 minBaltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet: Will Orioles Get the Better of Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays?
The first-place Baltimore Orioles are coming off an un-surprising sweep against the Oakland Athletics. The Orioles remain three games ahead of the Tampa Rays in the AL East, with the Toronto Blue Jays sitting 8.5 games behind in the division. Although the division looks tough for the Jays to win at the moment, they are only one game behind the Seattle Mariners for the last spot in the wild-card race. As of now, it looks like the Houston Astros, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Boston Red Sox will be fighting for the final two spots in the postseason.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: August 22, 2023
- Time: 7:05 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
With that, the Jays need to overcome some demons and win a series against the Orioles. The Orioles lead the season series 8-2 and have won all three series played so far between the two. This is the last meeting of the regular season for the Blue Jays, and while this is not a "mus-win" series with time still left in the season, the Blue Jays cannot fall much further behind in the playoff race before it is too late, so this is a very big series for them.
Tonight, the Blue Jays send out Yusei Kikuchi to the bump, who has been having a bounce-back season after a rough 2022 start with the Jays. Kikuchi has a 9-4 pitcher record and a 3.44 ERA in 24 outings this season after a 5.19 ERA and a 6-7 record last year. However, while he has been having a much better season, he has still not been able to find much success against the Orioles. The best Orioles' hitters have tagged Kikuchi hard, as the Orioles are a team that does well against lefties, to begin with. The Orioles have been batting .260 against lefties this season and .250 against righties. Part of that is due to the fact that really only one batter in the usual lineup (Gunnar Henderson) is a true lefty, while the others are righty hitters or switch-hitters. These are the ones that have dominated Kikuchi.
Adley Rutschman is 5-14 (.357) off Kikuchi with two homers. Ryan Mountcastle is an insane 7-12 (.583) with four homers. Anthony Santander is 4-13 (.308) with a homer. Ryan McKenna is 4-13 (.308) with three doubles. Jorge Mateo is 6-15 (.400) with a double and triple. This is the projected top three and bottom two hitters in the order who are all hitting over .300 against Kikcuhi with a lot of power. The heart of the order has not done as well off him, but five hitters in a row, once you get to the bottom of the order and flip to the top, have all dominated Kikuchi historically.
On the Orioles' side, it is Grayson Rodriguez who will get the start. Rodriguez was one of the most highly-touted pitching prospects coming into this season. Rodriguez is 3-3 with a 5.44 ERA, but his ERA is highly inflated from a very poor month of May. In May, Rodriguez had an 11.14 ERA in five starts, giving up six-plus runs in three of the five. Outside of May, Rodriguez has been good. In fact, since May, Rodriguez has a 2.98 ERA in six starts. He has only given up more than three runs in a start once since then, a start against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In August, He has a 2.89 ERA in three starts, one of which was against the Jays. In two starts against the Jays this season, Rodriguez has given up five runs in 10.2 innings, which is not fantastic, but it is serviceable.
The Orioles, despite their success against the Jays this season, are only -116 to win this game, and I believe that is due to Grayson Rodriguez's highly-inflated ERA. Kikuchi has a much lower ERA, but the ERAs do not tell the whole story in this game. Also, Vladdy is dealing with an injury, and he leads the team in home runs and RBIs. If he misses this game, that leaves a gap in the Jays' offense. The Orioles are the more complete team and have posted good numbers against Kikuchi. They will win this game tonight.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
2 Unit Pick: Orioles ML -116 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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