Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Can We Trust Zack Greinke, Royals Tonight?

Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Can We Trust Zack Greinke, Royals Tonight?

Two of the MLB's lowest-caliber teams face off when the Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals in a three-game series from Kauffman Stadium. Both teams are 1-4 in their last five games, and neither is headed to the playoffs, but hey, someone has to win this game, and there is some surprising value in this matchup.

Royals vs. Pirates Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: August 28, 2023
• Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
• Where to Watch: FS1

Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

The Royals send out future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke to the mound to open the series tonight, and I expect him to do well. Zack Greinke has not been having a great 2023, playing in his 20th season in the MLB, but he has been doing something he has done well his entire career, and that's pitching at home. Greinke has a 5.34 ERA on the season, but when you break it up between his starts at home and on the road, there's a pretty big difference. Greinke has a 3.57 ERA at home and a 7.15 ERA on the road. He has been a better pitcher at home his whole career, so this is no surprise.

Also, Greinke's struggles have come against better teams, which makes sense, but he has done very well against the lower-tier teams. This season, Greinke has a 3.74 ERA against teams under .500 and a 6.83 ERA against teams over .500. So he is getting his most favorable split tonight, a home start against a team under .500. Greinke has had six starts like this all season, and the Royals are 3-3 in those starts.

What will also help Greinke is that the Royals' bats have really woken up lately, especially at home. In fact, the Royals lead ALL OF BASEBALL with a .341 batting average at home over the last 30 days! Second is the Phillies with a .302. So yeah, the Royals offense is doing pretty good, at home, that is. Bobby Witt Jr. has taken off as the Royal's superstar, and the bottom of the order has been performing well above expectations as of late. With the Royal's bats waking up at home, this is a prime spot for Greinke to pick up a win.

While the Pirates are trotting out Johan Oviedo, I'm not too worried about how well the Royals have been hitting at home. The Royals are 8-4 over their last 12 home games, with the series against the Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, and Seattle Mariners. The Pirates have been stumbling ever since their hot start to the season, and Greinke will prove again tonight he still has what it takes. His nasty, offspeed stuff will get some swings and misses against the Pirates' hitters. This is a battle of the lows, but the Royals will come out on top.

Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick

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