Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals Best Bet: Can Kevin Gausman Rack Up the Strikeouts?
The Washington Nationals are in Toronto, taking on the Blue Jays in a three-game series. Can Kevin Gausman rack up the strikeouts in Game 1? Ben Rajavuori breaks down the game.
Ben Rajavuori - August 28, 2023, 4:57 PM EDT
5 minToronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals Best Bet: Can Kevin Gausman Rack Up the Strikeouts?
The Washington Nationals take a trip from Miami across the border to play the Toronto Blue Jays in a three-game series from Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are fighting for their playoff hopes in the AL East, currently sitting 2.5 games behind a wild card spot, and leading the charge on the mound is Jay's ace, Kevin Gausman. Gausman has a 3.23 ERA on the season and leads all AL pitchers with 195 strikeouts on the season. He faces a tough Nationals lineup tonight, but I still love this play.
Blue Jays vs. Nationals Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: August 28, 2023
- Game Time: 7:07 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals Prediction
The Nationals have been a tough team to strike out this season, as they hold the second-lowest strikeout rate overall this season with a 19% strikeout rate. However, they have struck out more against righties all season, specifically in the last 30 days. They are still above league average, but they have been dropping in strikeout rate, posting a 21% strikeout rate in the last 30 days against righty pitchers. Now, they face the highest strikeout pitcher in the American League.
Gausman has been a scary guy to face this season, but he is even scarier at home, where both his ERA and strikeout rate are even higher. He has 1.21 strikeouts per inning on the road and 1.39 strikeouts per inning at home. The National's strikeout rate is also 5.5% higher on the road. The Nationals have now traveled from New York to Miami and now to Toronto on zero rest.
The Nationals have two rookies in the lineup tonight who will struggle against Gausman. Jake Alu has 72 at-bats this season and has a 29.1% strikeout rate. Jacob Young only has three career MLB at-bats, so Gausman will eat him up. Alu and Young are probably good for 3-4 combined strikeouts, assuming they each see Gausman twice tonight. Gausman's line tonight is 6.5, meaning he would need 3-4 strikeouts against the seven remaining hitters to hit his line, and that seems very doable for the AL strikeout leader. The Nationals have not seen Gausman before, so the advantage goes to the pitcher in this instance.
Gausman has hit seven-plus strikeouts in 8/12 home starts this year, or 67%. He has missed in back-to-back starts, and I think this is a good opportunity to hit it against the Nationals, whose strikeouts numbers have been rising and are playing on a long road trip off of a travel day. The bats could take a few innings to wake up, at which point Gausman will already be at five or so strikeouts. This line feels too easy tonight.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals Best Bet
Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts -118 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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