Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet: Can Pablo Lopez Get the Twins a Playoff Win in Game 1?
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays best bet and game prediction for Tuesday's Game 1 action. The Twins end up the home team in the Wild Card Series despite having a worse record than the Blue Jays. Looking for a Game 1 pick? You've come to the right place.
Ben Rajavuori - October 3, 2023, 2:20 PM EDT
3 minMinnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet: Can Pablo Lopez Get the Twins a Playoff Win in Game 1?
The Minnesota Twins won the underwhelming AL Central with the worst record of a division winner in the MLB this season, coming into the postseason with an 87-75 record. The Jays come in with a better 89-73 record and still barely made the playoffs, for reference. Today, these two meet in the AL Wild Card series to decide who will go on to face the Astros. So what is the best bet for this game?
Blue Jays vs. Twins Date, Time and Where to Watch
- Date: October 3, 2023
- Time: 4:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
Well, as many people who follow me on Twitter know, I am a huge Twins fan. It's hard for me to read this game without much bias, but I am not betting on the Twins. The Twins have set a record with 18 playoff losses in a row, and it has been 6,937 days since their last playoff win. They are also starting Pablo Lopez, who I think is worse than Sonny Gray, but it's just how the rotation worked out. That brings me to my favorite bet in this game: the over. More specifically, the first half over.
Playoff baseball always tends to be lower-scoring, especially in the first game of a series, because teams are starting their best pitchers and have a more available bullpen. Because of that, the total in this game is just 7.5 runs, and the first five total is only 3.5 runs. I get it's a playoff game, but I could honestly see Lopez giving up 4 runs himself to hit this over.
Lopez had a start against the Jays earlier this season where he gave up 4 earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched, so we already know the Jays can do it. Lopez had just a 4.21 ERA at home this season, and he was very shaky in his consistency as a starter.
On the other side, Kevin Gausman has been good, but not perfect. The Twins have seen him twice this season, and they put up 6 earned runs in 4.2 innings the last time they saw him. The Twins were one of the better teams against righties this season with a .762 OPS against righties, which finished 5th in the MLB. That OPS has risen to .812 over the last 30 days. They have key lefty hitters in their lineup like Julien, Kepler, Polanco, and Wallner who can all crush righties, which is why they do better against righties than lefties. The Twins should be able to put up a few on Gausman.
Both bullpens are pretty good, which is why I'm going with the first five over here. Plus, It's only at 3.5 runs, and I can easily see this game being at more than four runs with this pitching matchup. Both pitchers have been lit up by the opposing team already this season. We just need four runs here.
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pick
- Pick: Twins/Blue Jays First Five Over 3.5 Runs @ -138 (Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds)
MLB Odds
