Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Best Bet: Can Jesus Luzardo Shine in Postseason Opener?

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Best Bet: Can Jesus Luzardo Shine in Postseason Opener?

The Phillies host the Marlins on the last game of the day to close out day one of the 2023 MLB Postseason. The Phillies are entering this postseason with a lot of hype after making it to the World Series last year, and with most of the same pieces from last year's team, they are looking to go right back.

The Marlins did not do so well down the stretch, going just 5-5 in their final 10 games and 11-8 in their last 20, but it was still good enough to beat out the Cubs, Padres, and Reds, for a spot in the playoffs. The Marlins got here off incredible seasons from Luis Arraez, the batting title holder, Jorge Soler, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. While the Marlins were able to make it to the postseason, I think they are one of the weakest teams in the playoffs, so they need a strong effort from Jesus Luzardo in game one to have a shot.

Marlins vs. Phillies Game 1 Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: October 3, 2023
• Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

Jesus Luzardo gets the ball first in game one for the Marlins after leading the team in ERA (3.63), wins (10), and strikeouts (208). Luzardo finished with the 7th-most strikeouts in the National League, but he only had 178.2 innings pitched, so he could have easily finished top five if he had closer to 190-200 innings. He has excellent strikeout pitches, led by his slider which had a 29% put-away rate this season. His slider also had a 50% whiff rate, making it easily his best pitch of 2023. Luzardo had a 27.7% strikeout rate in 2023, ranking in the 80th percentile among MLB pitchers. That success has carried over against the Phillies.

Luzardo has faced the Phillies multiple times in his career, given that they play in the same division. Luzardo has had 80 career plate appearances against current Phillies hitters in that time frame, walking just four and striking out 30 for a 37.5% strikeout rate. He has dominated the Phillies with his swing-and-miss stuff, even if he has given up runs (which we don't care about that much with a strikeout prop).

The Phillies did not rank well in strikeouts against lefties this season, ranking 5th-highest in strikeout rate at 25.3% against lefties. They have multiple strikeout victims in their lineup that have struck out a lot this season, including Kyle Schwarber, who, despite having a 30% strikeout rate, leads off for the Phillies. Luzardo may see him three times, and he could get two strikeouts off him alone. Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos also have strikeout rates close to 30%. This Phillies lineup is really good, but they also strike out often.

Jesus Luzardo is in a prime spot to strike out a lot of guys today. The Marlins need a good performance out of him, and the intensity of the playoffs will fire him up. His strikeout line is only 5.5 today with -125 juice on the over. He had 9 strikeouts in his last appearance against the Phillies. He realistically only needs five innings pitched to hit this line, and he can easily do that tonight. I like Luzardo to rack up strikeouts.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Pick

• Pick: Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts @ -125 (Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds)

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