Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet: Will Zac Gallen Struggle Against the Phillies?
The Arizona Diamondbacks have surprised many with a deep postseason run. Can they keep it going in Game 1 of the NLCS, or will the Phillies get to Zac Gallen in his road start? Krabs provides his analysis in his Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction.
Krabs - October 16, 2023, 4:25 PM EDT
5 minArizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet: Will Zac Gallen Struggle Against the Phillies?
Zac Gallen has carried the Diamondbacks through the first couple rounds of the postseason. Tonight, he will be challenged with his toughest test of his entire career, pitching on the road in Philly in the first game of the NLCS. Will Gallen shine once again, or will the Phillies once again find success at home in the playoffs?
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 16, 2023
- Game Time: 8:07 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: TBS
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Did anyone expect Arizona to still be playing baseball this deep into the postseason? I certainly did not. Either way, they’re here, and they’ll be tasked with playing in one of the toughest road environments in all of sports: Citizens Bank Park in the playoffs.
Gallen has found success on the road in the playoffs this season, giving up only two runs against the Dodgers in LA and against the Brewers in Milwaukee. I’m willing to bet Gallen’s legacy run of great road starts ends tonight. He’s struggled to pitch on the road this season. His ERA in Arizona this year is a 2.47, but on the road it balloons to 4.42. Don’t let recency bias get to you in this spot, Gallen isn’t great on the road and tonight he has to pitch in front of that insane Philly home crowd.
The road struggles aren’t a new thing for Gallen, either. He’s owned a higher ERA on the road in four of his five seasons. The electric playoff atmosphere in Philly will be too much for the 28 year old righty to handle tonight.
I have a weird feeling that the Phillies are the first team to score tonight. You don’t see the home teams starting pitcher getting juicier odds to give up the first run of the game than the away pitcher that often, especially with the odds on the moneyline this “short” for the favorite. Gallen is (-130) to give up the first earned run of the game. I’m shocked to see Zack Wheeler at (+115) in this spot, considering Arizona will get the first at bats in this game. This is a great sign for Phillies backers tonight, and the juicy odds on Gallen to give up the first earned run tell me the Phillies get to him early and often in this matchup.
Bet on Gallen to give up the first earned run in this matchup tonight. You can also take him to give up more than 2.5 earned runs tonight at (-110). The public is going to be backing Gallen to throw another gem after he’s dealt twice on the road this postseason, but don’t let your recency bias fool you. Gallen has let the nerves get to him on the road before, imagine how much he will struggle in front of this Philly crowd tonight…
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick
Pick: Zac Gallen o2.5 ERs allowed (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Pick: Zac Gallen to give up the first earned run (-130) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
MLB Odds
