Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Prediction: Can Cristian Javier, Astros Steal ALCS Game 3?

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Prediction: Can Cristian Javier, Astros Steal ALCS Game 3?

The Houston Astros find themselves trying to dig out of quite a hole tonight, as they have dropped the first two games of this series to fall 0-2 against the Texas Rangers. Now, they hit the road for three games with the Rangers needing just two to clinch their spot in the World Series. Can the Astros show any life and make this a competitive series?

Astros vs. Rangers Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: October 18, 2023
• Game Time: 8:03 pm ET
• Where to Watch: FS1

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Prediction

At first glance, the pitching matchup looks like it heavily favors the Rangers. The Rangers are starting Max Scherzer tonight, who was brought in from the Mets midseason. Scherzer has been one of the best pitchers in the league during his career and has plenty of postseason experience. He had a 3.2 ERA on the season. On the other side, fourth-year pitcher Cristian Javier gets the start. Javier surprisingly has postseason experience himself, as the Astros have made it to seven straight ALCS series. Javier had a 4.56 ERA on the season this year, having a much worse season than Scherzer. However, I think the Astros are in a better pitching spot entering tonight.

For starters, Scherzer is making his first start in over a month due to a shoulder injury. Scherzer has been in the dugout watching his team through the postseason so far but finally gets his chance to make a start. At 39 years old, though, any injury looms larger and longer for Scherzer, and I would bet good money he is not 100% coming into tonight and will not be able to stretch 90+ pitches like in a normal start. Also, he hasn't pitched in a game in over a month. That time without pitching leaves a lot of questions on the table for tonight, including how many innings he will even be able to go.

On the other side, Cristian Javier's situation is different. While Javier did not have a good regular season, he came out and pitched a scoreless outing against the Minnesota Twins in his first postseason start. In fact, all his postseason pitching has been good. In the four years he has been in the league, he has gotten plenty of postseason experience, and he has done very well. He has started three playoff games in his career, winning all three and not giving up a run yet. He has pitched 16.1 straight scoreless innings in the postseason dating back to the 2022 ALCS against the New York Yankees. Javier even had a start in last year's World Series, pitching six scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies and recording the win.

Something about Javier has been so clutch in the playoffs, and he rounds out an excellent rotation for the Astros that is backed by a good bullpen. Overall, Javier has posted a 1.91 ERA in 37.2 innings of postseason pitching. That is a stark contrast to his regular-season pitching, and I expect to see Javier continue that scoreless streak tonight.

The Astros find themselves down 0-2 in the series, but we know they are not panicking. They are the current most experienced team in the postseason, and they have veteran hitters and pitchers leading the way. They also played excellent on the road this season. They were 39-42 at home and 51-30 on the road. They had the worst home record of any team entering the playoffs, but one of the best road records. This team has been hated by many for a long time due to their cheating scandals and overall playoff dominance in the last decade. They have embraced the role. I like the Astros to steal Game 3 and make this an interesting series going into Game 4.

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Pick

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