Best MLB Home Run Bets: Lock In This Expert's Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Saturday
Which players can hit the long ball on today's 17 game MLB slate? Jason Radowitz shares his best MLB home run bets. Lock in this expert's best MLB player prop bets for Saturday.
Jason Radowitz - April 13, 2024, 10:03 AM EDT
5 minBest MLB Home Run Bets: Lock In This Expert's Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Saturday
We've got 17 games on the MLB slate tonight.
Unfortunately, there are plenty of underrated pitchers on the slate. But we've still found some spots to attack with our three home run props to consider.
April 13 Best MLB Home Run Props
Joc Pederson to Hit a Home Run (+420) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Since last season, Joc Pederson has hit a .186 ISO and wOBA of .347 with 18.8% strikeouts against righties. He's ultimately a platoon guy who typically only plays against right-handed pitching.
Lucky for him, he's facing Kyle Gibson, a righty, who has allowed a .478 ISO and wOBA of .408 to his first 25 lefties.
Gibson has also struck out just 20% of lefties and has allowed 27.8% of fly ball contact. Although Gibson is usually a ground ball pitcher, he doesn't get nearly as many grounders against lefties.
Let's take a chance with Pederson.
Lars Nootbaar to Hit a Home Run (+520) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
I was ultimately deciding between Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar. But the price for Nootbaar, who just hit a home run last night, is +520, while Gorman is +310. So we'll ride with the value here.
Lars Nootbaar has hit a .186 ISO and wOBA of .367 against his last 377 righties. The left-handed will take on Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks, who has already allowed a .429 ISO and wOBA of .447 to 18 lefties this season.
Nelson was terrible against lefties last year after allowing a .237 ISO and wOBA of .380. So, this is nothing new. Nelson's consistently bad against lefties.
In the 18 lefties he's faced this year, he's allowed 61.5% of fly balls, induced just 23.1% of ground balls, and earned only 11.1% of strikeouts. Any lefty in the Cardinals' order (other than Victor Scott) has the potential to hit the long ball against Nelson tonight.
Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+500) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
The Cubs will take on Emerson Hancock of the Mariners. He's a right-handed pitcher who has already allowed a .692 ISO and wOBA of .694 to 15 righties this season.
In addition, Hancock has allowed 66.7% of fly balls and has induced only 11.1% of ground balls against righties.
There are a few righties that have potential against Hancock. However, I like Seiya Suzuki the most. Suzuki has hit a .199 ISO and wOBA of .360 with 51.2% of hard contact.
You can also consider Christopher Morel. However, he's also struck out 29.6% of the time against righties and will face Hancock, who has still earned 26.7% of strikeouts against righties to begin the year.
Suzuki has a better chance of actually making contact for a home run.
Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today
- Joc Pederson to Hit a Home Run (+420) (Bet $100 to collect $520)
- Lars Nootbaar to Hit a Home Run (+520) (Bet $100 to collect $620)
- Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+500) (Bet $100 to collect $600)
MLB ODDS
