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The Philadelphia Phillies host the Texas Rangers tonight. Will they struggle against Jon Gray? Josh Gayle answers.

Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Will the Phillies Struggle Against Jon Gray?

This bet is risky, but I see value in it.

Rangers vs. Phillies DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

  • Date: May 21, 2024
  • Start Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings

Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

1u - Jon Gray u3.5 Earned Runs (-135) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Jon Gray has been pretty great this year holding a 2.08 ERA and an even better 1.74 road ERA. I understand these numbers aren’t sustainable as he’s typically a low four ERA guy but allowing three runs would worsen his ERA but still cash us.

Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Gray has allowed just seven earned runs in his last 48.1 innings pitched. Tonight he is projected to go between five and six innings. As good as the Phillies are, they have still allowed three earned runs or lower the opposing starter in five of their last seven games. Gray has an xERA that is nearly four so this is risky but four runs is a lot. He has allowed one run or less in eight of his last nine; he has been shoving.

The Phillies have been really good lately and Gray is due for some regression, but I think Gray goes five or six innings and only allows two or three runs tonight. The Rangers had the day off yesterday so hopefully the bullpen is well rested and Gray doesn’t need to be too overextended. Let's roll!


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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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