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The Minnesota Twins will look to win their series over the Oakland Athletics on Sunday afternoon. Can Pablo Lopez and the Twins dominate early? Ben Rajavuori provides his top prop pick for Twins vs. Athletics.
ANALYSIS

Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics Prop Pick: Can Pablo Lopez Get Back on Track Against Athletics?

The Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics finish up a three-game series in a day game on this beautiful Sunday afternoon in Oakland. The series is split 1-1 as today’s final game of the series in Oakland Colosseum will be a rubber match. What should we expect in this game today?

TWINS VS. ATHLETICS DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

  • Date: June 23, 2024
  • Start Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings

Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics Prediction

Oakland's offense went cold in game two after scoring six runs in game one. They scored just two runs yesterday and struggled to put together much offense besides two solo home runs. Today, they face Pablo Lopez of the twins.

Pablo Lopez has been struggling this year after a hot start to the season. He is now 6–6 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.25 whip. He has a 9.69 ERA in three starts in June as well. While he has certainly struggled as of late, this is an excellent chance for him to get back on track against the Oakland Athletics, a team that has struggled against right-handed pitching. The Athletics are 20th in batting average against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. More importantly, against someone like Pablo Lopez, it is their strikeout rate that caught my eye. The Oakland Athletics have the highest strikeout rate at 27% against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. Overall in 2024, the Athletics have the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at 26.6%, just behind the Mariners. This is important against a pitcher like Pablo Lopez, as he works best behind his swing-and-miss stuff.

While Pablo Lopez may have a high ERA of 5.63 that jumps out on paper, his underlying metrics are pretty good and suggest he has had a bit of bad luck. He has an expected ERA of 3.55 and is above average in every major metric behind barrel percentage, which is explained by some of his home run balls allowed. He certainly could give up a home run or two today against the A's, but I also expect he will get a lot of swing and miss. He is in the 71st percentile in strikeout rate in the MLB at 25.6%. He has also really been on top of his command, as his 5.3% walk rate is in the 86th percentile and will keep his pitch count low.

Today, Pablo Lopez is set at 6.5 strikeouts. Against a team like the Athletics, I am a bit surprised by this line, although, with Lopez‘s high ERA, that is the only reason I can see it being where it is. If you shop this line around, you can get -105 on the over here at BetMGM. For reference, Fanduel has -128 on over 6.5. At -105, this is a great price for a strikeout pitcher who is facing one of the highest strikeout teams in the MLB today. Back Lopez to hit at least seven K's tonight against the Athletics.

Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics Prop Pick

Pick: Pablo Lopez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-105) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

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Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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