Best MLB Home Run Bets: Lock In This Expert's Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Friday
Looking for Friday's best bets to go yard? Jason Radowitz is here to give us his favorite home run props for today's full slate. With so many exciting matchups ahead, you don't want to miss the three best home run prop bets for September 6th.
Jason Radowitz - September 6, 2024, 9:52 AM EDT
5 minBest MLB Home Run Bets: Lock In This Expert's Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Friday
In five days, we've hit five home run props. We've also added three home runs in the last two days after Matt Wallner (+420) came through for us yesterday.
I'm greedy and looking for more. Here are three more home run props for tonight's full slate of games.
September 6 Best MLB Home Run Props
Josh Jung to Hit a Home Run (+390) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
In the last month, Josh Jung has smashed a .188 ISO and wOBA of .428 against his last 17 lefties faced. He's also struck out only 17.6% of the time, while hitting 30.8% of fly balls.
Beyond that, he's nailed 46.2% of hard contact and has hit a 15.4% barrel percentage with only 38.5% of ground balls against lefties in the last 30 days.
Tonight, he'll take on Angels rookie Samuel Aldegheri. Aldegheri is a left-handed thrower who has allowed a .238 ISO and wOBA of .393 to his first 24 righties. He's also allowed 38.9% of fly balls and 50% of hard contact. Additionally, he's struck out only 12.5% of right-handed batters and has allowed 33.3% of line drives.
Jung is in line for a big game tonight.
Luke Raley to Hit a Home Run (+750) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Over the last month, Luke Raley has smashed a .263 ISO and wOBA of .421 against his last 51 righties. Raley also hit more than 40% of fly balls during that time and hit a team-leading 63% hard contact rate with a 14.8% barrel percentage against righties.
Tonight, he'll face Erick Fedde of the Cardinals, who has watched his last 53 lefties hit a .283 ISO and wOBA of .389. Those lefties have also slugged 45.5% of hard contact and have hit 39.4% of line drives with more than 30% of fly balls.
Raley is one of three lefties in the Mariners lineup with much potential. But he's got the best odds, so we'll roll with him.
Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The Padres will take on right-hander Mason Black on the San Francisco Giants. While he doesn't have the biggest sample size, it's looking like he's much worse against lefties than righties.
Against his first 41 lefties, Black has allowed a .289 ISO and wOBA of .440. He's also allowed 38.7% of fly balls and has earned only 5.3% of swinging strikes against lefties in the last month.
In his last appearance, he held righties to a .000 ISO and wOBA of .148 but still allowed six lefties to hit a .500 ISO and wOBA of .498. It looks like he'll be way worse against lefties in tonight's ball game.
Therefore, we'll back Jackson Merrill to go yard. Merrill is a rookie left-handed bat who has smashed a .430 ISO. and wOBA of .476 against his last 84 righties. Merrill has hit 48.5% of fly balls and 64.7% of hard contact, with a 23.5% hard contact rate against righties over the last 30 days.
Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today
- Josh Jung to Hit a Home Run (+390) (Bet $100 to collect $490)
- Luke Raley to Hit a Home Run (+750) (Bet $100 to collect $850)
- Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+500) (Bet $100 to collect $600)
MLB ODDS
