Mets vs. Astros Prediction, Odds: Can Astros Take Opening Series Rubber Match Against Juan Soto, Mets?

The New York Mets and Houston Astros will play their third consecutive game in Daikin Park in Houston on Saturday night. These interconference opponents split the first two games, each winning 3-1.

Juan Soto mashed his first home run as a Mets batter in the second game, leading to a 3-1 win on Friday. On Thursday, the Astros built a 3-0 lead in the 3rd inning, which was enough to close out the final six innings for a win during Opening Day.

Tonight's matchup has Griffin Canning and Spencer Arrighetti on the mound, which means we could be in store for a higher-scoring game than the first two matchups. Canning was acquired by the Mets from the Angels, while Arrighetti is in his second year with the Astros after going 7-13 as a starter during his rookie season last year.

MLB handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his best game pick to place on the New York Mets vs. Houston Astros on Saturday night with the latest odds. Follow Matt's X account for more MLB betting insight and free picks during the 2025 MLB season.

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New York Mets vs. Houston Astros Odds

• Spread: Mets +1 (-140), Astros -1 (+120)
• Moneyline: Mets (+105), Astros (-120)
• Total: Over 8.5 (+100), Under 8.5 (-113)

New York Mets vs. Houston Astros Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Saturday, March 29, 2025
• Time: 7:15 PM ET
• How to Watch: FOX

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NEW YORK METS VS. HOUSTON ASTROS PICK

Canning and Arrighetti were both susceptible to getting shelled last season. Canning finished 2024 with a 4.78 ERA and a 25-34 record with the Los Angeles Angels. This is only the second team Canning has played for in the MLB since debuting with the Angels in 2019.

Canning gave up a career-high 31 home runs last season, including 99 earned runs, also the highest mark in his career. The Astros have some big-time hitters in their lineup, adding Christian Walker from Arizona to bat clean-up behind Jose Altuve, Isaac Paredes, and Yordan Alvarez.

Arrighetti lost against Canning late in the season last year, but it was the Astros' bullpen that failed them in that 9-8 loss to the Angels. Canning allowed six hits, four runs, and two home runs in 4.1 innings pitched. Arrighetti pitched six innings, allowing five hits, two runs, one home run, and six strikeouts. He also escaped without a single walk allowed.

The Astros took a 4-0 lead after the fifth inning, then Arrighetti allowed two runs in the sixth inning. After pulling him, Los Angeles scored seven runs in the final three innings, handing the Astros a home loss.

After a win, the Mets have lost four straight games as underdogs. New York has also trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven road games against AL West opponents.

The winning team in both of these previous games played on Thursday and Friday scored their runs in the second and third innings. Bullpens did a good job, while we've yet to see a hitting clinic from either team in this series. I think this changes tonight, with the Astros swinging for the fences against Canning.

Arrighetti is a better pitcher than Canning. I also favor the Astros' lineup more than the Mets, despite the addition of Soto.

Let's avoid any potential bullpen chaos like we saw last season between these two starting pitchers and bet a unit on Houston's First 5 Innings Moneyline at -128 odds.

NEW YORK METS VS. HOUSTON ASTROS PICK

• Pick: Astros First 5 Innings Moneyline (-128) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Mets vs. Astros odds

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