MLB Prop Cheat Sheet: Targeting Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryon Buxton on Dinger Tuesday
The MLB slate is primed for Dinger Tuesday promotions, but how can you find out who will go deep? MJC Locks is here with his MLB Prop Cheat Sheet, discussing which hitters are in the best position to launch homers tonight. Check out this expert MLB analysis and breakdown for the best home run props on Tuesday, April 22nd.
MJC Locks
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MLB Prop Cheat Sheet: Targeting Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryon Buxton on Dinger Tuesday
There is a loaded MLB slate today with 15 games and all teams in action. Every Tuesday (Dinger Tuesday) the sportsbooks seem to like giving out profit boosts, so here are a few of my favorite home run looks to target when building out your home run parlays for tonight.
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MLB Prop Cheat Sheet: Tuesday, April 22nd
1. James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The 1st player I am liking to hit a home run is Nationals future star, James Wood. Wood has been crushing baseballs this season. He ranks in the 94th percentile in avg exit velocity and barrel %, and already has hit 7 homers on the season.
I love his matchup today against Orioles righty Dean Kremer, who has struggled to lefties so far this season with a 2.92 HR per 9 innings. Four of Wood's last five batted balls to righties have been hit over 106 MPH, so he is seeing the ball well. I think he takes Dean Kremer deep tonight!
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+360) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The 2nd player I am looking to target for a home run tonight is Blue Jays super star, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Vladdy is off to a slow start this season when it comes to hitting homers, but I love his chances tonight in Houston against Ronel Blanco.
Houston is one of the best ballparks for hitting home runs as a right-handed hitter, and Blanco is no stranger to giving up fly balls and hard contact. Blanco has been well below avg in barrel % and ground ball% in each of his four seasons, and his pitch mix is set up great for Vlad to go deep. His three primary pitches to righties are his 4-seam, slider, and curveball; Vladdy hits all three of them very well for power.
3. Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run (+260) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The last player I like to hit a home run tonight is Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins. Buxton is a very streaky player, but he's been crushing the ball over the past few weeks. Five of his last seven batted balls against righties have been hit over 101 MPH, and he gets a solid matchup vs. White Sox starter, Davis Martin.
Martin has struggled this season, allowing four home runs already and the weather in Minnesota tonight looks great for hitting with wind blowing out to left center. Martin's pitch mix also sets up well for Buxton, as he likes to throw a lot of sliders and 4-seam fastballs, two of Buxton's best pitches when it comes to hitting dingers.
Another few trends I have noticed with Buxton over the years is that he tends to play much better at home, and you can see that with his home run numbers (41 at home vs. 26 on road since 2022). He also tends to play his best baseball vs. the White Sox, with a career batting avg of .289 against them, with 22 home runs in 338 plate appearances (elite 6.5% rate). Although his odds are lower than usual, that is for good reason, and I expect him to get a hold of one again tonight!
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