MLB Home Run Props: Will Rafael Devers, Adolis Garcia Break Through on Wednesday?
Despite Wednesday's MLB slate kicking off at noon, there are still 10 night games to break down when it comes to home runs. There are two free-swinging sluggers in particular that I have circled that are due for positive regression in the slugging department. Let's break down home run bets for Wednesday April 23.
Charlie DiSturco
| 5 min
MLB Home Run Props: Will Rafael Devers, Adolis Garcia Break Through on Wednesday?
Despite an early afternoon start on the diamond Wednesday, there are 10 MLB games to break down this evening. Similar to yesterday, there are plenty of opportunities to fade some soft-tossing arms and I've got two hitters in particular that I believe are in store for a huge night.
So without further ado, let's get into my two favorite home run bets for Wednesday, April 23rd's MLB slate:
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MLB Home Run Props: Wednesday, April 23
Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run+370 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
It feels like only a matter of time before Rafael Devers breaks out. The lefty slugger has just two home runs on the season, but his underlying metrics are elite. He ranks among MLB’s best in barrel rate (21.3%), hard-hit rate (62.3%), and average exit velocity (95.6 mph) — sitting in the 98th percentile or better in all three.
Positive regression is on the horizon. Devers’ xSLG sits at .499, just a tick below his career average, yet he’s currently slugging just .352. He’s barreled 13 balls this season, but only two have left the yard.
A favorable matchup awaits with right-hander Emerson Hancock on the mound. The 25-year-old has struggled in limited big-league action. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who tries to induce soft contact. But with a strikeout rate of just 14% — nearly identical to his barrel rate allowed (13.6%) — that's a dangerous combo.
Fenway Park has ranked second in run factor over the past three seasons, per Baseball Savant. While the Green Monster can rob some home runs to left, Devers has a much easier path to the short right field.
Overall, this is a prime spot to back Red Sox bats against a shaky starter. On a near-70-degree day with the wind blowing out to right, I’m betting on Devers’ power to shine through.
Adolis Garcia to Hit a Home Run +360 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
If you're looking for another hitter crushing the ball without eye-popping results, Adolis Garcia fits the bill. I wrote about him last week and he delivered — so let’s go back to the well against soft-tossing lefty JP Sears.
Like Devers, Garcia ranks among the league’s best in the key power metrics. He’s in the 95th percentile or better in barrel rate (21%), average exit velocity (95 mph), and hard-hit rate (58.1%).
Garcia also ranks sixth in MLB in barrels per plate appearance (14.8%). Given how consistently he’s hitting the ball hard, it’s only a matter of time before the results catch up and a home run surge begins.
Enter Sears, the ideal target. Similar to Hancock, he doesn’t miss bats — just an 18% strikeout rate over the last two years — and relies on soft fly-ball contact. That’s a dangerous mix against a free-swinging slugger like Garcia.
Sears has allowed 1.5 HR/9 for his career and has given up a homer in all but one start this season. Now, he faces a power-heavy Rangers lineup in a hitter-friendly park in Sacramento.
Right-handed hitters hit .259 against Sears last season, and 16% of their hits went for home runs — 41% went for extra bases. Garcia, who’s always swinging for damage, couldn’t ask for a better matchup. Sears doesn’t walk or strike out many hitters, rather he fills up the zone looking to draw weak contact. That plays right into Garcia’s strengths.
MLB Home Run Props
- Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run +370 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Adolis Garcia to Hit a Home Run +360 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
MLB ODDS
