Monday MLB Prop Cheat Sheet: Can Corbin Carroll, Fernando Tatis Jr. Deliver on Cinco De Mayo?

While it's a relatively light Monday slate with no afternoon games and just 20 teams squaring off, there's plenty of value on props across the board. I have circled three of my favorite props for this May 5th slate, with each bet growing increasingly in odds.

It's like eating buffalo wings. We'll start with a mild flavor - a near pick'em or minus-money prop - before odds increase bit by bit (as do the flavors)! So without further ado, here's how I am betting this May 5th baseball slate:

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MLB Prop Cheat Sheet: Monday, May 5th

Mild: Corbin Carroll 2+ Bases (-105) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

It’s been a slow week for Corbin Carroll who has seen a bevy of left-on-left matchups thrown his way. But things should get easier on Monday night against the soft-tossing Griffin Canning and a Mets bullpen that has just one southpaw on its roster. 

Carroll has crushed right-handed pitching this season, hitting .296 with 62% of his hits going for extra bases. Nearly 30% of his hits have left the yard (8 HRs). Ketel Marte’s return to the lineup should only further protect Carroll, who put himself into the MVP conversation a month in. 

While Canning had a phenomenal month for the Mets in his first year with the club, there are some slight concerns. His xERA (3.93) is over a run higher than actual (2.61) and he ranks in the 21st percentile with a career-worst 46% hard-hit rate allowed.

Canning has been able to keep the ball in the park (2 HRs in 25 1/3 innings), a number that should negatively regress toward the mean soon enough. For his career, Canning sits at 1.52 HR/9. 

This is a plus matchup for Carroll, as Canning has largely struggled against left-handed hitting. Last season, Canning allowed an .831 OPS to lefties with a 39% extra base hit rate. While Carroll is more than live for a home run – and I’ll be betting that, too – let’s start with a safer play for the Monday slate and take his 2+ bases. 

At a minimum, we should see four at-bats for Carroll, who normally sits atop the Diamondbacks lineup. We could even see five as Canning is due for negative regression and the Mets bullpen is fresh off a doubleheader yesterday. 

Medium: Cole Ragans 9+ Strikeouts (+250) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Cole Ragans feels a bit undervalued in the strikeout market as he’s set to make his return after dealing with a mild groin strain the last couple of weeks. It’s a plus matchup against the White Sox offense which continues to struggle. 

There should be no limit for Ragans who has struck out double-digit batters in half his starts. Despite a 4.40 ERA, Ragans’ xERA is nearly two runs lower (2.45). His underlying metrics are elite, ranking in the 93rd percentile in xBA and 96th in strikeout rate (35.9%). 

The White Sox offense is littered with high strikeout batters including Luis Robert Jr (31.6 K%), Brooks Baldwin (27.2) and Michael A. Taylor (27.1). The lineup will also not include Andrew Benintendi (17.9), who left yesterday’s game with a calf strain. That likely means Joshua Palacios (27.8) gets a left-on-left start. 

This line is going to continue to rise throughout the day and feels a tad low because Ragans is returning from injury. I like taking an alt line and getting some plus money for Ragans who should not be on a pitch count here against a bad White Sox lineup. 

For what it’s worth, it’s probably worth an investment on Ragans in the Cy Young market (+2500) as well given the underlying metrics and near-two-run difference in ERA vs. expected. 

Hot: Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a Home Run +500 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Carlos Rodon has been great for the Yankees this season, but I’m not buying this drastic change in ground ball rate. The southpaw has been near-50% this year, up over 10% from 2024.

Home runs have long been an issue for the fastball-heavy southpaw. Rodon allowed a 1.59 HR/9 last season and in a hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, those issues continue. In just 17 innings this season at home, Rodon has allowed four home runs. 

The long ball issues often come at the hands of right-handed hitters, too. Taking a look at his 2024 numbers, Rodon allowed 28-of-31 home runs to the right side of the plate. A total of 22% of hits left the park (1.77 HR/9 to RHH).  

This leads me to Tatis who has been nothing short of fantastic this season. He ranks in the 98th percentile in xSLG (.644) and has the highest barrel rate (16.8%) since 2021. He is crushing the ball atop the Padres lineup. 

Despite being hit in the forearm a few days ago – it looked like his forearm grew another forearm – Tatis returned to the lineup and laced a double the next day. Tatis has been crushing both four-seam fastballs and sliders – a +5 run value on each already – the two pitches Rodon throws a combined 68% of the time. 

Rodon has been great, but his home run problems make him a fade candidate when it comes to long shots. There’s plenty of value here on Tatis who is among the best hitters in baseball. 

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