Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Top Mild-Medium-Hot Picks for Wednesday, May 7
In another edition of mild-medium-hot, Charlie DiSturco analyzes his three favorite props of the Wednesday MLB slate. Each bet gets higher in odds, ending with a swing-for-the-fences home run bet to make. Despite day baseball, there's plenty of value in the later games, so let's break it down.
Charlie DiSturco - May 7, 2025, 12:57 PM EDT
5 minBest MLB Prop Bets Today: Top Mild-Medium-Hot Picks for Wednesday, May 7
Not only do we have every single MLB team in action on this Wednesday, but as you're reading this, there's day baseball going on as well! I won't focus on the early games for the sake of longevity of these props, but there's nothing quite like a mid-work day sweat.
Like on Monday, we are going to run back this mild-medium-hot props piece. While we were unable to sweep - Tatis HR never came close - we did hit the mild and medium bets (shoutout Cole Ragans for an alt strikeout cash)!
So without further ado, my favorite three props of the Wednesday MLB skate:
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Best MLB Props: Wednesday, May 7
Mild: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Like the Baltimore Orioles, its superstar Gunnar Henderson is off to a slow start in 2025. Just a year removed from a 37 home run season, the lefty shortstop has just three to date. His strikeout rate has risen and barrel rate dropped, too.
A good matchup on Wednesday could be the perfect buy-low opportunity on Henderson. While he is not barreling the ball as much, his hard-hit rate remains an elite and ironically, career-best 55.3%. In a limited sample, he has also looked much better in May.
However, the main reason for buying Henderson here is because of the opposing pitcher – Simeon Woods Richardson. The right-hander is a negative regression target with a 5.66 xERA through six appearances (4.03 actual). Woods Richardson ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate (48.8%), ground ball rate (sub-30%) and barrel rate (17.9%).
In other words, Woods Richardson should be giving up a home run a start, if not multiple. He enters with a home run allowed in each of his last five appearances.
Woods Richardson isn’t a high strikeout pitcher and throws his fastball nearly 50% of the time. While Henderson has struggled with some off-speed this season, his best run value is against the 4-seam (+2), of which he has a 72.4% hard-hit rate.
Buy Henderson here in a plus matchup against a below-average Woods Richardson.
Medium: Jackson Jobe Alt 6+ Strikeouts (+220) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
This bet is not for the faint of heart. Jackson Jobe, while he flashes a high-90s fastball, has not generated much swing-and-miss stuff in his limited time with the Tigers. He’s been able to pitch to a solid 3.62 xERA, but has dealt with control issues at times (13.7%).
Given his rollercoaster and sometimes wild nature, buying an alt on strikeouts is oftentimes difficult. But the last few matchups Jobe has had came against low-strikeout offenses. Enter the Colorado Rockies, dead last in strikeouts per game (10.12).
I’m looking to buy low on Jobe and alt his strikeout prop here to six – a number he has yet to hit. I am comfortable with his over 4.5 (+115), but this is a medium bet, so let’s take the odds up a bit more, shall we?
Nick Martini is the only Rockies hitter with a sub-20% strikeout rate. Players like Michael Toglia (37.8%), Jordan Beck (34.1%) and Ryan McMahon (32.4%) have quickly become boom-or-bust hitters.
While the game is in Coors, I’m willing to look past the elevation here. Last season in the minors, Jobe had a 9.43 K/9 rate, and the year prior, that number sat up at 11.81. There’s high strikeout stuff with this young arm and if he’s able to locate, he should have no problem cruising against this horrid Rockies lineup.
Hot: Max Muncy to Hit a Home Run (+400) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
On a team with Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman as hot as ever at the plate, let’s take a quick left turn and say hello to Max Muncy. Hello, Max!
Similar to Henderson, Muncy’s power has taken a turn for the worst this season. He has just one home run and a .176 average through 130 plate appearances. But underlying metrics actually show Muncy is due for positive regression and has been snake bitten by bad batted ball luck.
Muncy’s xBA (.207) and xSLG (.403), while low for his career norms, is still much higher than actual (.176 and .278, respectively). He has the best hard-hit rate of his career and is barreling the ball above 10%, even with his early-season struggles at the plate.
He is a boom-or-bust hitter and based on how hard he’s hitting the ball, I would imagine home runs should start coming for the lefty slugger. Of his last five batted balls, four have come at 98+ mph. Only one has been a hit (double).
The Marlins will throw out Valente Bellozo on Wednesday night, a righty that relies on inducing soft contact. Muncy’s high strikeout rate should not be an issue here, rather he should be able to take advantage of Bellozo, who has one of the highest meatball rates in baseball.
Bellozo has a career 1.77 HR/9 rate. But perhaps most shocking is that his ground ball rate this season is sub-20%! He also really struggles against left-handed hitting, allowing a .391 average this season in 28 at-bats.
Despite a big Miami ballpark, Muncy should be able to take advantage of the soft-tossing Bellozo. Go big or go home here with a home run bet.
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