Best MLB Underdog Value Bets - Fading Dodgers, Mets on Tuesday, April 28th
The MLB Tuesday slate has an exciting crop of matchups, one involving Shohei Ohtani. Can the Marlins get to him tonight, and will the Mets keep losing? Check out these underdog MLB System bets from the oddschecker+ Positive EV Tool and The Wolf for Tuesday, April 28th.
The Wolf - April 28, 2026, 1:30 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadTuesday MLB Underdog Bets: Can Marlins, Nationals Pull Upsets on April 28th?
The Wolf does not need favorites. He needs price. Tuesday brings two ugly underdogs with real plus-money value, backed by the Oddschecker+ AI model and inflated market skepticism.
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MLB Tuesday Best Underdog Bets
1. Washington Nationals Moneyline (+159) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 47%
- Implied Probability: 38.61%
- EV: 21.73%
- Trend: Won 4 of last 10
Washington sends Zack Littell, 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA, against Mets starter Clay Holmes, 2-2 with a 2.10 ERA. On paper, the pitching edge points to New York, but the Mets enter at 9-19 and recently carried a three-game losing streak, while Washington is 13-16 and just took a series from the White Sox.
This is not about trusting Littell blindly. It is about getting +159 on a Nationals team facing a Mets club still trying to find traction. The Wolf sees value in the gap.
2. Miami Marlins Moneyline (+235) Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 36%
- Implied Probability: 29.85%
- EV: 20.6%
- Trend: Won 4 of last 10
Miami sends Janson Junk, 1-2 with a 3.67 ERA, against Shohei Ohtani, 2-0 with a 0.38 ERA. It will be tough for the Marlins to get to Ohtani, who has not been lit up yet in 2026. But that is exactly why the price is inflated.
The Dodgers are rolling at 20-9 after a walk-off win over Miami, their third straight victory and sixth home win in seven games. Still, Ohtani is making another early-season start, and even dominant pitchers can have a letdown spot. At +235, Miami does not need to be likely. It only needs to be underpriced.
Best Underdog System Picks - Tuesday, April 28th
Underdog moneylines are not about comfort. They are about probability versus price.
- Washington Nationals ML (+159) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Miami Marlins ML (+235) Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
More MLB Odds
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