MLB Playoffs Best Home Run Bets for Tuesday's Opening Games
We have four exciting matchups to kick off the MLB Playoffs on Tuesday throughout the afternoon and evening. Check out these best MLB Playoffs Home Run Bets for Tuesday, September 29 featuring Matt Olson, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and more.
Peter Alexis - September 29, 2026, 11:30 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadMLB Playoffs Best Home Run Bets: Targeting Matt Olson, Pete-Crow Armstrong, and More on Tuesday
San Diego and Chicago close out this set of MLB best bets with a card built around four distinctly different markets. The Cubs feature prominently, with exposure to the outright result along with multiple player-specific opportunities.
The selections combine a more traditional moneyline position with a pitcher strikeout Under and two plus-money home run swings. That creates a balanced card between a lower-variance game market and higher-upside player props.
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5 Best MLB Home Run Bets for Playoffs Game 1
1. Michael Harris II Over 0.5 Home Runs (+450) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Michael Harris II represents the highest projected home run value in this matchup, with a 24.6% AI probability against 5.5 odds, resulting in a +35.6% expected value. Harris anchored an Atlanta offense that hit 204 home runs this season, posting a .491 slugging percentage and an .812 OPS in 2026.
While Phillies starter Jesús Luzardo has been sharp, his tendency to elevated fastballs can occasionally result in long fly balls. Harris’s power profile makes him the most likely Braves hitter to capitalize on these mistakes in a game where scoring opportunities may be limited.
2. Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs (+405) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Matt Olson remains Atlanta's primary power threat, boasting a team-high .502 slugging percentage for the 2026 season. He enters this contest in strong form, having recorded two home runs and 8 RBIs over his last 10 games. The AI model assigns a 22.0% probability to Olson clearing the 0.5 home run line, which offers a +11.3% edge at 5.05 odds.
Despite Luzardo's recent 0.638 WHIP, Olson’s pull-side power is a constant threat in high-stakes postseason environments, especially at home where the Braves' offense has consistently produced runs through the long ball.
3. Ben Rice Over 0.5 Home Runs (+495) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Benjamin Rice emerged as a top-tier power threat in 2026, launching 41 home runs and leading the Yankees with a .534 slugging percentage. The AI model assigns Rice a 25.5% probability to homer, the highest in this matchup, creating a massive +52.0% expected value against the 5.95 decimal odds. He faces Payton Tolle, who has struggled with early-inning command and home run suppression recently.
When factoring in the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium, Rice is statistically the premier candidate to clear the fence. While home run props are volatile, the price-to-probability ratio here is heavily skewed in the bettor's favor.
4. Alex Bregman Over 0.5 Home Runs (+630) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Alex Bregman enters the postseason in peak form, highlighted by a perfect 4-for-4 performance with two home runs in the regular-season finale. Over his last 10 games, he has maintained a blistering 1.162 OPS and a .358 batting average. He faces Michael King, who has shown recent vulnerability by allowing two home runs in his last five starts and surrendering four runs in his final regular-season appearance.
While home run props are inherently volatile, the model assigns Bregman a 22.1% chance to go deep, which translates to a massive +61.0% expected value at the 7.30 price point. Given his recent power surge since returning from facial fractures, this is a mathematically superior longshot play.
5. Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Home Runs (+325) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as a premier power-speed threat, concluding a historic 40-40 regular season with 45 total home runs and a robust .569 slugging percentage. His recent form remains elite, batting .343 with a 1.070 OPS over his last 10 games. The matchup against Michael King is favorable, as King has posted a 1.31 WHIP over his last five starts, indicating frequent baserunners and elevated stress.
The model projects Crow-Armstrong with a 32.8% probability of hitting a home run in Game 1. At 4.25 odds, this creates a strong +39.3% expected value, as the outfielder continues to benefit from high-barrel contact rates despite the pitcher-friendly dimensions of Petco Park.
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