Padres vs. Brewers Best Bets: 5 Top Props for NLDS Game 2 on Sunday Afternoon
The Padres and Brewers return to American Family Field on Sunday with Milwaukee looking to take a commanding series lead after edging San Diego in the opener. Can Jackson Chourio, William Contreras and Logan Henderson help the Brewers build on a tight Game 1 victory? Check out these Brewers vs. Padres 4 best bets for Sunday, October 4.
Peter Alexis - October 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadPadres vs. Brewers Prediction: Targeting Logan Henderson, Jackson Chourio in Sunday's NLDS Game 2 Props
Milwaukee took Game 1 of the NLDS 3-2 on Saturday, rallying from an early deficit before holding off San Diego late. The Brewers now have another opportunity at home to move within one victory of the NLCS, while the Padres enter Game 2 needing a response before the series shifts to San Diego.
Sunday's card centers on two Milwaukee hitter markets, a Logan Henderson strikeout Under and a game total. The combination creates exposure to both the Brewers' offense and a matchup that could develop differently after the low-scoring opener.
Padres vs. Brewers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, October 4th, 2026
- Time: 4:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: FS1
Padres vs. Brewers Odds
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Padres vs. Brewers 4 Best Bets Breakdown for NLDS Game 2
1. Logan Henderson Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-127) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Logan Henderson faces a disciplined San Diego Padres lineup that prioritizes contact, featuring veterans like Ty France and Xander Bogaerts who excel at extending at-bats. Henderson has stayed Under 6.5 strikeouts in three of his last five starts, averaging 6.2 per outing.
The AI model projects Henderson for exactly 6.00 strikeouts today, finding value in the Under at 1.79 odds (+8.5% EV). In a postseason environment, managers are historically quicker to pull starters for elite relief arms, further capping Henderson's ceiling for high strikeout totals.
2. William Contreras Over 0.5 RBIs (+199) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
William Contreras carries significant momentum after delivering the game-winning home run in Game 1. Batting in the heart of the Brewers' order, he benefits from high-OBP catalysts like Jackson Chourio (.351 OBP) and Brice Turang (.369 OBP) hitting ahead of him.
The AI model identifies a massive pricing discrepancy, projecting 0.829 expected RBIs and a 56.4% probability of driving in at least one run against 2.99 odds. With Michael King allowing 26 baserunners over his last 30 innings, Contreras should see multiple high-leverage opportunities to cash this +68.5% EV play.
3. Over 7.5 (+117) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
The AI model predicts a combined total of 7.96 runs, making Over 7.5 a strong value play at +117 (2.17) odds. While both Michael King and Logan Henderson have strong season ERAs, both show recent signs of vulnerability. King struggled in a recent start against the Dodgers (11.25 ERA), and Henderson has surrendered four home runs over his last five appearances.
With powerful bats like Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and William Contreras all in peak form, the offensive potential for both sides supports surpassing this low total line.
4. Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Runs (+700) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Jackson Chourio is an elite upside play at 8.0 odds. The rookie has been electric at the top of the order, scoring 75 runs this season with a .351 OBP. Having homered in Game 1, he remains the engine of the Brewers' offense. The AI model projects Chourio for 0.843 expected runs and suggests a 20.7% likelihood he crosses the plate twice. Batting ahead of productive RBI threats like Brice Turang and William Contreras against a pitcher in Michael King who has shown high-walk tendencies lately creates an +65.4% EV opportunity.
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