Dodgers vs. Brewers Best Bets: 3 Top Props for NLCS Game 1 on Sunday Night
The Dodgers and Brewers open the NLCS on Sunday at American Family Field in a rematch of last season's National League Championship Series. Can Jacob Misiorowski, Jake Bauers and a loaded Los Angeles lineup shape Game 1 with two of baseball's best teams battling for an early series advantage? Check out these Dodgers vs. Brewers 3 best bets for Sunday, October 11.
Peter Alexis - October 11, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT
3 Minute ReadDodgers vs. Brewers Prediction: Targeting Jacob Misiorowski, Jake Bauers in Sunday's Top Props for NLCS Game 1
Milwaukee enters the NLCS after a 103-win regular season and another strong postseason showing, while Los Angeles arrives looking to continue its push for a third consecutive World Series appearance. The matchup also offers the Brewers an opportunity to answer last year's NLCS loss to the Dodgers, beginning with home-field advantage in Game 1.
Jacob Misiorowski starts for Milwaukee opposite Tarik Skubal in one of the strongest pitching matchups of the postseason. The three-pick card still includes multiple paths to offense, pairing a Misiorowski strikeout Over with a long-shot Jake Bauers home run prop and an Over on a low 5.5-run total.
Dodgers vs. Brewers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, October 11th, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: FOX
Dodgers vs. Brewers Odds
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Dodgers vs. Brewers 3 Best Bets Breakdown for NLCS Game 1
1. Jacob Misiorowski Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Jacob Misiorowski has been a dominant force for the Brewers, entering this matchup with a stellar 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. His strikeout numbers are particularly elite, averaging 12.99 K/9 with 252 strikeouts in 174.2 innings this season. Over his last five starts, he has maintained this form, totaling 31 strikeouts in 23.2 innings while posting a meager 1.18 ERA.
The AI model projects him for 7.87 strikeouts (Poisson lambda 7.9) against a Dodgers lineup that may be missing Miguel Rojas due to a back injury. At +103 decimal odds (2.03), there is distinct value in backing the over on a line that Misiorowski is frequently clearing during his current run of form.
2. Jake Bauers Over 0.5 Home Runs (+700) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Jake Bauers offers significant long-shot value at 8.00 odds given his .484 slugging percentage and potent extra-base power throughout the season. While facing Dodgers southpaw Tarik Skubal presents a strikeout risk, Skubal has shown recent vulnerability to the long ball, surrendering home runs in three of his last five starts.
Bauers anchored the middle of the Milwaukee order with an .873 OPS, and the AI simulation identifies a 17.9% probability for him to clear the fences. With an expected home run score (lambda) of 0.197, the massive +700 price point fails to properly account for Bauers' power profile in this specific matchup, leading to an expected value of +43.2%.
3. Over 5.5 (-130) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Typically, a matchup featuring Jacob Misiorowski and Tarik Skubal would suggest a pitcher's duel, but the 5.5-run total is set too low for these offenses. The AI model projects a total of 7.27 runs for this contest, with the Dodgers expected to produce 3.71 and the Brewers 3.56. Both clubs have been prolific throughout the season, with Milwaukee averaging 5.09 runs per game and Los Angeles hitting 212 total home runs.
There is a high 65.3% probability that these deep lineups will overcome the elite starters or find success against the bullpens. At 1.77 odds, the market is overvaluing the starting pitching strength relative to the raw run-scoring ability of both teams.
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