Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Player Prop: Bank on Max Strus From Deep in Game 5
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Player Prop: Bank on Max Strus From Deep in Game 5
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Start Time and Where to Watch
When: 7:00 pm ET
Where to Watch: NBA TV
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Heat vs. Hawks Line Movement
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction
The Miami Heat are looking to finish off the Atlanta Hawks tonight and I've got a great idea on how to celebrate. We should bet on the game. It makes perfect sense. The thing is, I can't do a total on this since the Heat could shut things down on defense again. They've held them to under 100 twice already in this series. That puts a damper on the over and I'm not betting an under. It's Tuesday night. We need to respect ourselves. Plus I'm watching this game and it's bad form to bet unders when watching the games. What can I say, I'm a man of high class. That leaves us with the spread or a player prop. When I'm faced with a situation like this, I always go player prop. It just feels like the right thing to do.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Player Prop Pick
Max Strus Over 3.5 Made Threes (+116) (Bet $100 to win $116)
*Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing*
I wanted to go 5+ like a real man but it was only +260 so I couldn't. I want +350 or higher for something like that. We're talking Max Strus here people. Still, I think +116 is fair enough for four treys so I took it. If you're mad because you can only play at DraftKings, then you can turn that frown upside down because they have over 3.5 for +115. That's close enough.
This one is so dangerous because at any moment the Heat could just play Duncan Robinson more and we're toast. That's just how Duncan Robinson works. Still, it's been three games now and Strus seems to be the long-distance threat so I'm rolling with it. His net rating in the playoffs is +27.8. Duncan Robinson's is -3.2. Strus feels right here.
Volume is king in a three-point betting game and this guy is seeing volume. I heard that Erik Spoelstra used to get mad at Duncan Robinson for passing up open looks and it feels like that's happening here with Strus. The guy took 14 three-point attempts last game. In the game before that, he took 10. The good part is, it wasn't like he was on fire and these were all heat checks. He's just trigger happy. Don't worry though, he hit four of the 14 attempts last game and five of the 10 the game before.
Why wouldn't you shoot a ton of threes against the Hawks though? Of all the teams that qualified for the playoffs, they were the worst at defending the three-point line this season. Opponents connected on 36.3% of their long-distance approaches. That's crazy. (It should be noted that Chicago was actually worse but I don't count them as a playoff team.) I am a believer in role players at home in the playoffs so since the books are giving +116 for this, I think it's smart to take it.
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John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.