Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Best Bet: Can De'Aaron Fox Help Kings Avoid Elimination in Game 6?
The Warriors went on the road to Sacramento in Game 4 and took a convincing series lead, going up 3-2. Now in a Game 6, can De'Aaron Fox help the Kings avoid elimination? Ben Rajavuori answers.
Ben Rajavuori - April 28, 2023, 10:42 AM EDT
5 minGolden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Best Bet: Can De'Aaron Fox Help Kings Avoid Elimination in Game 6?
The Warriors went on the road to Sacramento in Game 4 and took a convincing series lead, going up 3-2. The Warriors got a strong performance from Steph Curry and Klay Thomspon, as expected, but also got a 21-point game from Draymond Green, who shot 8 of 10 from the field. Now, the Kings' backs are against the wall once again on the road in game six in an elimination game. The Warriors are solid 7.5-point favorites to take it tonight and close the series. Where does the value lie in this matchup?
Warriors vs. Kings Game 6 Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Friday, April 28, 2023
- Start Time: 8:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Game 6 Prediction
The biggest storyline heading into Game 4 was the status of Kings point guard De'Aaron Fox. Fox fractured the tip of his index finger of his left shooting hand last in Game 4, and the star guard was listed as doubtful for Game 5. However, he was determined to play, even through pain, and Fox logged a season-high 42 minutes in Game 5. He had yet to top 41 minutes all season in a regulation game, and it was clear Fox was there to play, even if he wasn't 100%, and he most likely wasn't and still won't be after one day off.
What sucks about Fox's injury is that it's on his shooting hand, which I think surely affected his shot. Early in the game, he shot well. The 25-year-old had three three-pointers in the first half in three attempts. However, that must have hurt to shoot or something because Fox would end with three threes and miss his last seven attempts of the game.
My best guess is his adrenaline covered the pain of his broken finger throughout the first frame, but it got more painful to shoot as the game went on. Fox would end 9/25 from the field in game five. Still, he was effective as a point guard, leading all players on the court in game five with nine assists. He also had seven rebounds.
For Game 5, I took Fox over 5.5 assists because of the fractured finger but also because he is an effective passer and talented point guard. In game six, Fox's assist line has bumped to 6.5 with some more juice on the over, likely because of what game five was like. I still like him to pass 6.5 assists, but I am combining this with his rebounds on Fanduel at 11.5. This is because I expect him to shoot a bit less in this game, and the less he is shooting, the more I expect him to crash the boards.
Even with a fractured finger, Fox was aggressive in Game 5, grabbing seven boards. He has nine, nine, and seven boards in the last three games of the series, and I think he could even get to double-double range tonight on either assists or rebounds. Fox has hit at least 14 rebounds and assists combined in the last four games of the series, and with the finger looking like it is affecting his shot, I love him to go over 11.5 tonight.
He hit 16 in the last game with the injury, and I expect him to get another 40+ minute outing tonight. He has averaged 12.7 rebounds plus assists in the last ten games, and tonight he will need to be a playmaker as a point guard to stave off elimination. Fox to record a triple-double is +3800, and I wouldn't mind a small stab at that number, considering he got pretty close last game (24 points, seven rebounds, nine assists).
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Game 6 Best Bet
Pick: De'Aaron Fox O11.5 Rebounds + Assists @ -130 is currently the best odds. Click here to find out which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
NBA Odds
