Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers Best Bet: Can Michael Porter Jr. Make an Impact in West Finals Game 1?
Can Michael Porter Jr. make an impact in West Finals Game 1? Ben Rajavuori answers and shares his best bet for the Nuggets vs. Lakers game.
Ben Rajavuori - May 16, 2023, 4:46 PM EDT
5 minDenver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers Best Bet: Can Michael Porter Jr. Make an Impact in West Finals Game 1?
The Los Angeles Lakers knocked off the defending champions, the Golden State Warriors, and now have a date with the Nuggets in Game 1 of the conference finals in Denver. The Nuggets knocked off the Suns in six games to earn their spot here, and they are now one series away from the finals. The Nuggets are expected to take Game 1 as 6-point favorites, but I am not interested in a side in this article. Instead, I have my eyes on Michael Porter Jr.
Nuggets vs. Lakers Game 1 Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, May 16, 2023
- Time: 8:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game 1 Prediction
Michael Porter Jr. has had a solid impact on the Nuggets in the playoffs. He is third on the team with 14.5 points per game in the playoffs, and he is second on the team with 7.5 rebounds per game behind only Nikola Jokic. The latter is my focus tonight. Porter Jr.'s rebounds prop is only 5.5 tonight, and I think he clears that number with ease. In 11 playoff games this season, Porter Jr. has hit six or more rebounds in seven, good for 64%, but he has also hit exactly five in two, narrowly missing his line tonight. He's also hit double-digit rebounds in four postseason games so far this season.
The Lakers have allowed the fifth-most rebounds to small forwards this season at 8.22 per game. With Anthony Davis and Nikola Jokic battling down low, I expect Porter Jr. to be aggressive on the boards again and to clean up anything Jokic can't get. The Lakers play at the second-fastest pace in the league, meaning we will get the maximum amount of rebound opportunities for Porter Jr. with more possessions. This has shown up on the Lakers' stat sheet, as they allow 45 rebounds per game, which is 25th in the league.
It's not a large sample size, but in his two games against the Lakers this season, Porter Jr. hit nine and seven rebounds. This is because he has a good matchup and because of how fast the Lakers play. The 24-year-old had hit at least eight rebounds in his last three games before Game 6 against the Suns, and he hit five in that game.
The only reason he didn't have more is because it was an utter blowout, and he only played 24 minutes. He should play at least 30 tonight. I'm backing Porter Jr. to have another good night on the boards and possibly even record a double-double at a great price. Also, -140 over on FanDuel is a great price on this line because I have seen it at -160 or higher on every other book.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game 1 Picks
- 2 Unit Pick: Michael Porter Jr. O5.5 Rebounds -140 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbooks have the best odds
- .5U Pick: Michael Porter Jr. to Record a Double-Double +550 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbooks have the best odds
NBA Odds
