Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Pick, Prediction: Can Michael Porter Jr. Make an Impact in NBA Finals Game 1?
Denver Nuggets are taking on the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. Can Michael Porter Jr. make an impact in Game 1? Oddschecker handicapper Ben Rajavuori breaks it down and shares his pick for this game.
Ben Rajavuori - June 1, 2023, 4:52 PM EDT
7 minDenver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Pick, Prediction: Can Michael Porter Jr. Make an Impact in NBA Finals Game 1?
The Miami Heat have pulled off what no one thought was possible and have made it to the 2023 NBA Finals. They were almost the first team to ever blow a 3-0 lead in the playoffs, but they took care of business in Boston in Game 7. Now, they have a date in Denver against the well-rested Denver Nuggets. Going to Denver to play at altitude with a severe rest disadvantage does not set the Heat up well in game one, and there's a Nugget I love to make his impact in Game 1.
Nuggets vs. Heat Game 1 Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: June 1, 2023
- Game Time: 8:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ABC, ESPN+
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Game 1 Prediction
Michael Porter Jr. only played nine games in the 2021-2022 season, and he has come back this season beautifully. He is averaging 17.4 points per game and is hitting 41.4% of his threes. However, I am looking specifically at his rebounds prop tonight. Porter only averaged 5.5 rebounds per game during the regular season, but that average has risen to 8.0 rebounds per game in the playoffs, which leads the team behind Nikola Jokic. Aaron Gordon was the leading rebounder behind Jokic during the regular season. There is a reason for this: the matchups Porter has had.
Porter has had a fantastic size advantage in the last two series, especially against the Los Angeles Lakers, and he should have another good matchup in this series. He averaged 9.3 rebounds per game in the Lakers series and hit ten rebounds in three of the four games. He has now hit over 7.5 rebounds in six of his last eight games. In the two misses, he got into early foul trouble in one of them, and the other was a blowout where he only played 24 minutes. He has not missed this line playing over 30 minutes since game one of the Suns series.
Porter should have another great series on the boards. Jimmy Butler or Caleb Martin will likely defend him for most of the game, and he is taller than both, and he is arguably more physical than both. Porter is a tall small forward, and at 6' 10, he is even an inch taller than Bam Adebayo. The Heat will be so concerned with boxing out Jokic that Porter will have many opportunities to crash the boards and snag rebounds like he did last series and has been all playoffs.
Also, Porter lines up on the block on free throws so that he can get a few free ones on missed free throws. Twice in the Lakers series, he hit his rebounds prop by getting at least two rebounds on missed free throws. Playing on the wing, Porter will also have the opportunity for offensive rebounds as he crashes the boards on missed threes. Will his length, he can get up over the smaller Heat lineup and outsize them.
This is a great matchup for Porter to have a big series on the boards. He is second behind Jokic at rebounding in the playoffs, and that should follow suit tonight. Sure, Jokic may get 15+ boards here, but Porter could be right behind him and grab ten tonight as he has in three of his last four games. In the Heat/Celtics series, I bet Derrick White threes every game, and he went six for seven. Maybe the bet for every game in this series will be Porter rebounds! It depends if the line inflates too much, but this should be easily surpassable for Porter tonight.
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Game 1 Pick
2 Unit Pick: Michael Porter Jr. O7.5 Rebounds -104 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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